Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing above $1 trillion at 93.5% implied probability, driven by surging private market valuations—recent secondary trading implies around $1.3 trillion—and credible reports of a confidential June 2026 filing targeting $1.5–2 trillion amid Starlink's explosive revenue growth to $22–24 billion projected for 2026. Starship's rapid iteration, including a successful V3 fueling test on May 12 and imminent Flight 12, bolsters confidence in achieving full reusability and high-cadence launches, unlocking multi-planetary ambitions and competitive dominance over legacy providers. Realistic challenges include Starship test anomalies causing delays, FAA regulatory hurdles, or macroeconomic shifts compressing multiples, though skin-in-the-game traders see limited downside risk before 2028 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTítulo del ítem del grupo: 1T+ 94%
No IPO before 2028 1.7%
700B–800B 1.4%
800 mil millones–900 mil millones 1.1%
$3,401,073 Vol.
$3,401,073 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500B
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 500B–600B
<1%
600 mil millones–700 mil millones
<1%
700B–800B
1%
800 mil millones–900 mil millones
1%
900B–1T
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 1T+
94%
No IPO before 2028
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: 1T+ 94%
No IPO before 2028 1.7%
700B–800B 1.4%
800 mil millones–900 mil millones 1.1%
$3,401,073 Vol.
$3,401,073 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500B
$374,530 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 500B–600B
$319,879 Vol.
<1%
600 mil millones–700 mil millones
$287,072 Vol.
<1%
700B–800B
$331,388 Vol.
1%
800 mil millones–900 mil millones
$481,942 Vol.
1%
900B–1T
$418,617 Vol.
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 1T+
$598,755 Vol.
94%
No IPO before 2028
$588,890 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing above $1 trillion at 93.5% implied probability, driven by surging private market valuations—recent secondary trading implies around $1.3 trillion—and credible reports of a confidential June 2026 filing targeting $1.5–2 trillion amid Starlink's explosive revenue growth to $22–24 billion projected for 2026. Starship's rapid iteration, including a successful V3 fueling test on May 12 and imminent Flight 12, bolsters confidence in achieving full reusability and high-cadence launches, unlocking multi-planetary ambitions and competitive dominance over legacy providers. Realistic challenges include Starship test anomalies causing delays, FAA regulatory hurdles, or macroeconomic shifts compressing multiples, though skin-in-the-game traders see limited downside risk before 2028 resolution.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ET
Volumen
$3,401,073Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing above $1 trillion at 93.5% implied probability, driven by surging private market valuations—recent secondary trading implies around $1.3 trillion—and credible reports of a confidential June 2026 filing targeting $1.5–2 trillion amid Starlink's explosive revenue growth to $22–24 billion projected for 2026. Starship's rapid iteration, including a successful V3 fueling test on May 12 and imminent Flight 12, bolsters confidence in achieving full reusability and high-cadence launches, unlocking multi-planetary ambitions and competitive dominance over legacy providers. Realistic challenges include Starship test anomalies causing delays, FAA regulatory hurdles, or macroeconomic shifts compressing multiples, though skin-in-the-game traders see limited downside risk before 2028 resolution.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$3,401,073Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing above $1 trillion at 93.5% implied probability, driven by surging private market valuations—recent secondary trading implies around $1.3 trillion—and credible reports of a confidential June 2026 filing targeting $1.5–2 trillion amid Starlink's explosive revenue growth to $22–24 billion projected for 2026. Starship's rapid iteration, including a successful V3 fueling test on May 12 and imminent Flight 12, bolsters confidence in achieving full reusability and high-cadence launches, unlocking multi-planetary ambitions and competitive dominance over legacy providers. Realistic challenges include Starship test anomalies causing delays, FAA regulatory hurdles, or macroeconomic shifts compressing multiples, though skin-in-the-game traders see limited downside risk before 2028 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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