Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for possessing the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent dominance across Arena Text leaderboards, where it leads as the most consistent performer in categories like expert tasks, math, and coding following its April 16 release. This marks a clear edge over Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro (16.5%), which trails closely but excels in creative writing, amid anticipation for potential Gemini 3.2 or 3.5 announcements at Google I/O on May 19-20. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (8.0%) remains competitive yet lags in overall rankings, while xAI's Grok 4.20 (2.5%) shines in niche areas like hard prompts. With six weeks to resolution, new benchmark updates or surprise releases could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model landscape.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 72.4%
Título del ítem del grupo 17%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.6%
$5,767,053 Vol.
$5,767,053 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
72%
Título del ítem del grupo
17%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
3%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 72.4%
Título del ítem del grupo 17%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.6%
$5,767,053 Vol.
$5,767,053 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$823,340 Vol.
72%
Título del ítem del grupo
$503,234 Vol.
17%
OpenAI
$330,115 Vol.
8%
xAI
$1,053,484 Vol.
3%
Meta
$127,160 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$493,047 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$153,508 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$293,648 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$360,397 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$350,769 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$462,676 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$143,766 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$149,069 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$371,283 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$151,745 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for possessing the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent dominance across Arena Text leaderboards, where it leads as the most consistent performer in categories like expert tasks, math, and coding following its April 16 release. This marks a clear edge over Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro (16.5%), which trails closely but excels in creative writing, amid anticipation for potential Gemini 3.2 or 3.5 announcements at Google I/O on May 19-20. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (8.0%) remains competitive yet lags in overall rankings, while xAI's Grok 4.20 (2.5%) shines in niche areas like hard prompts. With six weeks to resolution, new benchmark updates or surprise releases could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$5,767,053Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for possessing the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent dominance across Arena Text leaderboards, where it leads as the most consistent performer in categories like expert tasks, math, and coding following its April 16 release. This marks a clear edge over Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro (16.5%), which trails closely but excels in creative writing, amid anticipation for potential Gemini 3.2 or 3.5 announcements at Google I/O on May 19-20. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (8.0%) remains competitive yet lags in overall rankings, while xAI's Grok 4.20 (2.5%) shines in niche areas like hard prompts. With six weeks to resolution, new benchmark updates or surprise releases could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$5,767,053Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for possessing the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent dominance across Arena Text leaderboards, where it leads as the most consistent performer in categories like expert tasks, math, and coding following its April 16 release. This marks a clear edge over Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro (16.5%), which trails closely but excels in creative writing, amid anticipation for potential Gemini 3.2 or 3.5 announcements at Google I/O on May 19-20. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (8.0%) remains competitive yet lags in overall rankings, while xAI's Grok 4.20 (2.5%) shines in niche areas like hard prompts. With six weeks to resolution, new benchmark updates or surprise releases could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model landscape.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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