OpenAI’s chief scientist Jakub Pachocki recently described GPT-5.6 internally as a “meaningful improvement” over the current GPT-5.5 flagship, fueling speculation of a late-June public release. Leaks in Codex traces and internal codenames have surfaced alongside reports of a 1.5-million-token context window aimed at complex codebases. Traders on prediction markets have placed over $960,000 in volume, assigning roughly 83% implied probability to a June 22–28 window amid competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 and Chinese models like GLM-5.2 that have posted stronger benchmark results. OpenAI’s planned IPO filing adds urgency to maintain frontier positioning, though no official model card, benchmarks, or announcement has appeared as of June 18. Any slippage in testing or last-minute safety reviews could shift the timeline into July.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$1,803,897 Vol.
30 jun 2026
June 30
1%
July 3
8%
July 6
14%
July 8
31%
July 10
50%
July 13
55%
July 15
62%
17 de julio
72%
July 24
86%
July 31
90%
$1,803,897 Vol.
June 30
$403,958 Vol.
1%
July 3
$41,800 Vol.
8%
July 6
$20,669 Vol.
14%
July 8
$14,408 Vol.
31%
July 10
$46,515 Vol.
50%
July 13
$21,638 Vol.
55%
July 15
$17,516 Vol.
62%
17 de julio
$26,374 Vol.
72%
July 24
$31,679 Vol.
86%
July 31
$413,035 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s chief scientist Jakub Pachocki recently described GPT-5.6 internally as a “meaningful improvement” over the current GPT-5.5 flagship, fueling speculation of a late-June public release. Leaks in Codex traces and internal codenames have surfaced alongside reports of a 1.5-million-token context window aimed at complex codebases. Traders on prediction markets have placed over $960,000 in volume, assigning roughly 83% implied probability to a June 22–28 window amid competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 and Chinese models like GLM-5.2 that have posted stronger benchmark results. OpenAI’s planned IPO filing adds urgency to maintain frontier positioning, though no official model card, benchmarks, or announcement has appeared as of June 18. Any slippage in testing or last-minute safety reviews could shift the timeline into July.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Volumen
$1,803,897Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s chief scientist Jakub Pachocki recently described GPT-5.6 internally as a “meaningful improvement” over the current GPT-5.5 flagship, fueling speculation of a late-June public release. Leaks in Codex traces and internal codenames have surfaced alongside reports of a 1.5-million-token context window aimed at complex codebases. Traders on prediction markets have placed over $960,000 in volume, assigning roughly 83% implied probability to a June 22–28 window amid competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 and Chinese models like GLM-5.2 that have posted stronger benchmark results. OpenAI’s planned IPO filing adds urgency to maintain frontier positioning, though no official model card, benchmarks, or announcement has appeared as of June 18. Any slippage in testing or last-minute safety reviews could shift the timeline into July.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,803,897Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s chief scientist Jakub Pachocki recently described GPT-5.6 internally as a “meaningful improvement” over the current GPT-5.5 flagship, fueling speculation of a late-June public release. Leaks in Codex traces and internal codenames have surfaced alongside reports of a 1.5-million-token context window aimed at complex codebases. Traders on prediction markets have placed over $960,000 in volume, assigning roughly 83% implied probability to a June 22–28 window amid competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 and Chinese models like GLM-5.2 that have posted stronger benchmark results. OpenAI’s planned IPO filing adds urgency to maintain frontier positioning, though no official model card, benchmarks, or announcement has appeared as of June 18. Any slippage in testing or last-minute safety reviews could shift the timeline into July.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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