Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Google releasing Gemini 3.2 on May 19, driven by mounting evidence ahead of the Google I/O 2026 keynote that day. Key catalysts include Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian's recent statement on a "new version of Gemini coming very, very soon," alongside credible leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in LM Arena benchmarks, AI Studio pricing, and iOS app feature toggles like universal reasoning. These signal imminent rollout of an upgraded large language model emphasizing speed, lower latency, and improved tool calling to challenge rivals like GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.7. While historical I/O timing bolsters this positioning, realistic challenges include common product delays pushing to May 20, unresolved technical tuning amid recent 3.1 complaints, or a pivot to announce Gemini 3.5 instead.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMay 19 91%
May 20 2.7%
May 18 1.9%
May 22 1.8%
$231,969 Vol.
$231,969 Vol.
31 may 2026
May 12
<1%
May 13
<1%
May 14
<1%
May 15
<1%
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
2%
May 19
91%
May 20
3%
May 21
1%
May 22
2%
May 23
1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
1%
May 26
1%
May 27
1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
2%
May 19 91%
May 20 2.7%
May 18 1.9%
May 22 1.8%
$231,969 Vol.
$231,969 Vol.
31 may 2026
May 12
$8,126 Vol.
<1%
May 13
$3,372 Vol.
<1%
May 14
$3,770 Vol.
<1%
May 15
$6,978 Vol.
<1%
May 16
$5,588 Vol.
<1%
May 17
$7,031 Vol.
<1%
May 18
$28,800 Vol.
2%
May 19
$84,373 Vol.
91%
May 20
$13,169 Vol.
3%
May 21
$8,114 Vol.
1%
May 22
$9,607 Vol.
2%
May 23
$3,069 Vol.
1%
May 24
$3,950 Vol.
<1%
May 25
$2,132 Vol.
1%
May 26
$2,792 Vol.
1%
May 27
$2,335 Vol.
1%
May 28
$2,014 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$1,605 Vol.
<1%
May 30
$3,689 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$3,573 Vol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$9,182 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Google releasing Gemini 3.2 on May 19, driven by mounting evidence ahead of the Google I/O 2026 keynote that day. Key catalysts include Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian's recent statement on a "new version of Gemini coming very, very soon," alongside credible leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in LM Arena benchmarks, AI Studio pricing, and iOS app feature toggles like universal reasoning. These signal imminent rollout of an upgraded large language model emphasizing speed, lower latency, and improved tool calling to challenge rivals like GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.7. While historical I/O timing bolsters this positioning, realistic challenges include common product delays pushing to May 20, unresolved technical tuning amid recent 3.1 complaints, or a pivot to announce Gemini 3.5 instead.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volumen
$231,969Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Google releasing Gemini 3.2 on May 19, driven by mounting evidence ahead of the Google I/O 2026 keynote that day. Key catalysts include Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian's recent statement on a "new version of Gemini coming very, very soon," alongside credible leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in LM Arena benchmarks, AI Studio pricing, and iOS app feature toggles like universal reasoning. These signal imminent rollout of an upgraded large language model emphasizing speed, lower latency, and improved tool calling to challenge rivals like GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.7. While historical I/O timing bolsters this positioning, realistic challenges include common product delays pushing to May 20, unresolved technical tuning amid recent 3.1 complaints, or a pivot to announce Gemini 3.5 instead.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$231,969Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Google releasing Gemini 3.2 on May 19, driven by mounting evidence ahead of the Google I/O 2026 keynote that day. Key catalysts include Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian's recent statement on a "new version of Gemini coming very, very soon," alongside credible leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in LM Arena benchmarks, AI Studio pricing, and iOS app feature toggles like universal reasoning. These signal imminent rollout of an upgraded large language model emphasizing speed, lower latency, and improved tool calling to challenge rivals like GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.7. While historical I/O timing bolsters this positioning, realistic challenges include common product delays pushing to May 20, unresolved technical tuning amid recent 3.1 complaints, or a pivot to announce Gemini 3.5 instead.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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