Anthropic commands an 88.5% implied probability because its Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or place near the top on style fidelity, instruction-following, and agentic coding benchmarks that align closely with the market’s “style control” criteria. Recent releases in April strengthened these advantages over competitors, with traders citing consistent outperformance in voice consistency and complex prompt adherence as the decisive factor. Google’s 9.5% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro’s multimodal and scientific-reasoning strengths, yet it trails in the style-specific metrics traders appear to weigh most heavily. OpenAI’s 1.6% reflects GPT-5.5’s gains in computer-use tasks but limited recent movement on style benchmarks. With resolution only two weeks away, the market shows little expectation of disruptive new releases before month-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 89%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.6%
Alibaba <1%
$591,229 Vol.
$591,229 Vol.
31 may 2026
Anthropic
89%
10%
OpenAI
2%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 89%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.6%
Alibaba <1%
$591,229 Vol.
$591,229 Vol.
31 may 2026
Anthropic
$56,258 Vol.
89%
$60,345 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$35,869 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$58,086 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$39,810 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$49,893 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$25,554 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$34,097 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$38,952 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$39,087 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,580 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$25,718 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$29,179 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$29,953 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$32,847 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands an 88.5% implied probability because its Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or place near the top on style fidelity, instruction-following, and agentic coding benchmarks that align closely with the market’s “style control” criteria. Recent releases in April strengthened these advantages over competitors, with traders citing consistent outperformance in voice consistency and complex prompt adherence as the decisive factor. Google’s 9.5% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro’s multimodal and scientific-reasoning strengths, yet it trails in the style-specific metrics traders appear to weigh most heavily. OpenAI’s 1.6% reflects GPT-5.5’s gains in computer-use tasks but limited recent movement on style benchmarks. With resolution only two weeks away, the market shows little expectation of disruptive new releases before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$591,229Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands an 88.5% implied probability because its Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or place near the top on style fidelity, instruction-following, and agentic coding benchmarks that align closely with the market’s “style control” criteria. Recent releases in April strengthened these advantages over competitors, with traders citing consistent outperformance in voice consistency and complex prompt adherence as the decisive factor. Google’s 9.5% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro’s multimodal and scientific-reasoning strengths, yet it trails in the style-specific metrics traders appear to weigh most heavily. OpenAI’s 1.6% reflects GPT-5.5’s gains in computer-use tasks but limited recent movement on style benchmarks. With resolution only two weeks away, the market shows little expectation of disruptive new releases before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$591,229Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic commands an 88.5% implied probability because its Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or place near the top on style fidelity, instruction-following, and agentic coding benchmarks that align closely with the market’s “style control” criteria. Recent releases in April strengthened these advantages over competitors, with traders citing consistent outperformance in voice consistency and complex prompt adherence as the decisive factor. Google’s 9.5% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro’s multimodal and scientific-reasoning strengths, yet it trails in the style-specific metrics traders appear to weigh most heavily. OpenAI’s 1.6% reflects GPT-5.5’s gains in computer-use tasks but limited recent movement on style benchmarks. With resolution only two weeks away, the market shows little expectation of disruptive new releases before month-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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