Recent benchmark leadership from OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family, combined with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro delivering near-parity on reasoning and coding tasks, has driven traders to assign Anthropic a 62% implied probability of holding the third-best model by end of May. OpenAI’s May 5 rollout of GPT-5.5 Instant as the new ChatGPT default reinforced its top-two positioning, while Anthropic’s recent compute expansions and consistent GPQA Diamond gains have edged it ahead of Google in aggregated trader assessments. With resolution imminent, any final benchmark updates or minor capability leaks could still shift the narrow gap between these two contenders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 65%
Google 39%
OpenAI 1.4%
xAI <1%
$91,585 Vol.
$91,585 Vol.
31 may 2026
Anthropic
71%
39%
OpenAI
1%
xAI
1%
Baidu
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 65%
Google 39%
OpenAI 1.4%
xAI <1%
$91,585 Vol.
$91,585 Vol.
31 may 2026
Anthropic
$13,929 Vol.
71%
$10,742 Vol.
39%
OpenAI
$6,983 Vol.
1%
xAI
$7,512 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$5,786 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$5,635 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,395 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$7,369 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$5,533 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,743 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$2,578 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$6,802 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$3,641 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,361 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,613 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent benchmark leadership from OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family, combined with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro delivering near-parity on reasoning and coding tasks, has driven traders to assign Anthropic a 62% implied probability of holding the third-best model by end of May. OpenAI’s May 5 rollout of GPT-5.5 Instant as the new ChatGPT default reinforced its top-two positioning, while Anthropic’s recent compute expansions and consistent GPQA Diamond gains have edged it ahead of Google in aggregated trader assessments. With resolution imminent, any final benchmark updates or minor capability leaks could still shift the narrow gap between these two contenders.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$91,585Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent benchmark leadership from OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family, combined with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro delivering near-parity on reasoning and coding tasks, has driven traders to assign Anthropic a 62% implied probability of holding the third-best model by end of May. OpenAI’s May 5 rollout of GPT-5.5 Instant as the new ChatGPT default reinforced its top-two positioning, while Anthropic’s recent compute expansions and consistent GPQA Diamond gains have edged it ahead of Google in aggregated trader assessments. With resolution imminent, any final benchmark updates or minor capability leaks could still shift the narrow gap between these two contenders.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$91,585Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent benchmark leadership from OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family, combined with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro delivering near-parity on reasoning and coding tasks, has driven traders to assign Anthropic a 62% implied probability of holding the third-best model by end of May. OpenAI’s May 5 rollout of GPT-5.5 Instant as the new ChatGPT default reinforced its top-two positioning, while Anthropic’s recent compute expansions and consistent GPQA Diamond gains have edged it ahead of Google in aggregated trader assessments. With resolution imminent, any final benchmark updates or minor capability leaks could still shift the narrow gap between these two contenders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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