Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April, which posted leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-bench, has driven trader consensus toward its 66% implied probability for holding the top large language model spot by end of June. The addition of persistent memory in public beta further strengthens its edge in sustained reasoning tasks over competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 series maintains a solid 22.5% share through strong efficiency and context-window gains, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 launch in late April has not yet shifted momentum enough to exceed its 5.5% odds. With no major new frontier releases confirmed before June 29, current positioning reflects ongoing benchmark trends and competitive gaps in practical capabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 66%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,952 Vol.
$1,455,952 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
66%
22%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 66%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,952 Vol.
$1,455,952 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$30,400 Vol.
66%
$18,356 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$49,319 Vol.
6%
xAI
$14,949 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,120 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$136,496 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$11,868 Vol.
1%
Meta
$8,140 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,881 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,349 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$270,689 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$59,334 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$17,641 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,804 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,606 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April, which posted leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-bench, has driven trader consensus toward its 66% implied probability for holding the top large language model spot by end of June. The addition of persistent memory in public beta further strengthens its edge in sustained reasoning tasks over competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 series maintains a solid 22.5% share through strong efficiency and context-window gains, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 launch in late April has not yet shifted momentum enough to exceed its 5.5% odds. With no major new frontier releases confirmed before June 29, current positioning reflects ongoing benchmark trends and competitive gaps in practical capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$1,455,952Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April, which posted leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-bench, has driven trader consensus toward its 66% implied probability for holding the top large language model spot by end of June. The addition of persistent memory in public beta further strengthens its edge in sustained reasoning tasks over competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 series maintains a solid 22.5% share through strong efficiency and context-window gains, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 launch in late April has not yet shifted momentum enough to exceed its 5.5% odds. With no major new frontier releases confirmed before June 29, current positioning reflects ongoing benchmark trends and competitive gaps in practical capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$1,455,952Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April, which posted leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-bench, has driven trader consensus toward its 66% implied probability for holding the top large language model spot by end of June. The addition of persistent memory in public beta further strengthens its edge in sustained reasoning tasks over competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 series maintains a solid 22.5% share through strong efficiency and context-window gains, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 launch in late April has not yet shifted momentum enough to exceed its 5.5% odds. With no major new frontier releases confirmed before June 29, current positioning reflects ongoing benchmark trends and competitive gaps in practical capabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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