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Tech·Business

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

icon for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Tech·Business

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

jun 30

dic 31

jun 30

dic 31

$47,130 Vol.

31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$47,130 Vol.

Polymarket

OpenAI

$9,756 Vol.

38%

Google

$13,363 Vol.

31%

xAI

$5,588 Vol.

17%

Meta

$3,686 Vol.

14%

ByteDance

$2,202 Vol.

10%

DeepSeek

$2,067 Vol.

10%

Amazon

$1,313 Vol.

10%

Microsoft

$2,264 Vol.

10%

Alibaba

$500 Vol.

9%

Moonshot

$576 Vol.

9%

Z.ai

$956 Vol.

9%

Baidu

$581 Vol.

9%

Mistral

$2,625 Vol.

7%

Meituan

$1,653 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads trader sentiment due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5 models topping major June 2026 leaderboards like LMSYS Arena and LLM Stats with the highest overall scores in reasoning, coding, and general capabilities. These releases have widened the gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3 variants, which remain competitive on specific benchmarks but trail in composite rankings. The market reflects tight frontier competition among a handful of labs, with performance converging and advantages often hinging on context windows, agentic tasks, or cost-efficiency rather than raw capability. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops or updates from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI before year-end, alongside ongoing regulatory evaluations that could influence deployment timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$47,130
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads trader sentiment due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5 models topping major June 2026 leaderboards like LMSYS Arena and LLM Stats with the highest overall scores in reasoning, coding, and general capabilities. These releases have widened the gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3 variants, which remain competitive on specific benchmarks but trail in composite rankings. The market reflects tight frontier competition among a handful of labs, with performance converging and advantages often hinging on context windows, agentic tasks, or cost-efficiency rather than raw capability. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops or updates from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI before year-end, alongside ongoing regulatory evaluations that could influence deployment timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$47,130
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 14 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "OpenAI" con 38%, seguido de "Google" con 31%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 38¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 38% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" ha generado $47.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 30, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?", explora los 14 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" es "OpenAI" con 38%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 38% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Google" con 31%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.