Trader consensus heavily favors no T-Mobile US and SpaceX merger or acquisition announcement in 2026, reflected in the 93.5% implied probability for "No." The primary driver remains the absence of any official talks, filings, or credible reports beyond June 2026 analyst speculation from TD Cowen about a potential $320 billion deal tied to Starlink's wireless expansion and spectrum holdings. T-Mobile continues deepening its existing Starlink partnership for direct-to-cell satellite service, while its CFO recently dismissed standalone Starlink Mobile as non-competitive due to physics and infrastructure limits. SpaceX's focus on its IPO, other acquisitions, and regulatory spectrum approvals further reduces near-term likelihood. A sudden wholesale network impasse could theoretically shift dynamics before year-end, though antitrust scrutiny and integration scale make that improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
7% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
7% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that T-Mobile US (TMUS) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX (SPCX), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both TMUS and SPCX or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by TMUS or SPCX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TMUS and SPCX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no T-Mobile US and SpaceX merger or acquisition announcement in 2026, reflected in the 93.5% implied probability for "No." The primary driver remains the absence of any official talks, filings, or credible reports beyond June 2026 analyst speculation from TD Cowen about a potential $320 billion deal tied to Starlink's wireless expansion and spectrum holdings. T-Mobile continues deepening its existing Starlink partnership for direct-to-cell satellite service, while its CFO recently dismissed standalone Starlink Mobile as non-competitive due to physics and infrastructure limits. SpaceX's focus on its IPO, other acquisitions, and regulatory spectrum approvals further reduces near-term likelihood. A sudden wholesale network impasse could theoretically shift dynamics before year-end, though antitrust scrutiny and integration scale make that improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that T-Mobile US (TMUS) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX (SPCX), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both TMUS and SPCX or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by TMUS or SPCX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TMUS and SPCX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both TMUS and SPCX or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by TMUS or SPCX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TMUS and SPCX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 1, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
Volumen
$141Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that T-Mobile US (TMUS) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX (SPCX), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both TMUS and SPCX or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by TMUS or SPCX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TMUS and SPCX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no T-Mobile US and SpaceX merger or acquisition announcement in 2026, reflected in the 93.5% implied probability for "No." The primary driver remains the absence of any official talks, filings, or credible reports beyond June 2026 analyst speculation from TD Cowen about a potential $320 billion deal tied to Starlink's wireless expansion and spectrum holdings. T-Mobile continues deepening its existing Starlink partnership for direct-to-cell satellite service, while its CFO recently dismissed standalone Starlink Mobile as non-competitive due to physics and infrastructure limits. SpaceX's focus on its IPO, other acquisitions, and regulatory spectrum approvals further reduces near-term likelihood. A sudden wholesale network impasse could theoretically shift dynamics before year-end, though antitrust scrutiny and integration scale make that improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that T-Mobile US (TMUS) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX (SPCX), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both TMUS and SPCX or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by TMUS or SPCX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TMUS and SPCX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both TMUS and SPCX or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by TMUS or SPCX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TMUS and SPCX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$141Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no T-Mobile US and SpaceX merger or acquisition announcement in 2026, reflected in the 93.5% implied probability for "No." The primary driver remains the absence of any official talks, filings, or credible reports beyond June 2026 analyst speculation from TD Cowen about a potential $320 billion deal tied to Starlink's wireless expansion and spectrum holdings. T-Mobile continues deepening its existing Starlink partnership for direct-to-cell satellite service, while its CFO recently dismissed standalone Starlink Mobile as non-competitive due to physics and infrastructure limits. SpaceX's focus on its IPO, other acquisitions, and regulatory spectrum approvals further reduces near-term likelihood. A sudden wholesale network impasse could theoretically shift dynamics before year-end, though antitrust scrutiny and integration scale make that improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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