Traders assign a 94.5 percent probability that President Trump will not resign before 2027 because no official statements, health disclosures, or political pressures have emerged to suggest otherwise during the first sixteen months of his second term. Recent cabinet confirmations, legislative priorities on border security and regulatory reform, and public appearances show sustained engagement in governance without indications of withdrawal. Historical patterns indicate sitting presidents complete their terms absent acute medical events or scandals that force resignation, and current market pricing reflects this baseline. Unforeseen developments such as sudden health issues or major legal reversals could still shift outcomes before the resolution date, though none have materialized to date.