Recent polling from early May shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding first-round support near 39 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 33–37 percent and right-wing governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema plus smaller candidates splitting the remaining vote. Brazil’s two-round electoral system requires over 50 percent for an outright win on October 4, a threshold no leading contender has approached amid a polarized and fragmented field. This distribution, consistent across Quaest, Ideia, and Futura surveys, sustains trader consensus that a runoff remains the probable outcome, with any late consolidation or withdrawal unlikely to alter the math before the first round.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$65,530 Vol.
$65,530 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Sí
$65,530 Vol.
$65,530 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early May shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding first-round support near 39 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 33–37 percent and right-wing governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema plus smaller candidates splitting the remaining vote. Brazil’s two-round electoral system requires over 50 percent for an outright win on October 4, a threshold no leading contender has approached amid a polarized and fragmented field. This distribution, consistent across Quaest, Ideia, and Futura surveys, sustains trader consensus that a runoff remains the probable outcome, with any late consolidation or withdrawal unlikely to alter the math before the first round.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$65,530Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early May shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding first-round support near 39 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 33–37 percent and right-wing governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema plus smaller candidates splitting the remaining vote. Brazil’s two-round electoral system requires over 50 percent for an outright win on October 4, a threshold no leading contender has approached amid a polarized and fragmented field. This distribution, consistent across Quaest, Ideia, and Futura surveys, sustains trader consensus that a runoff remains the probable outcome, with any late consolidation or withdrawal unlikely to alter the math before the first round.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$65,530Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from early May shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding first-round support near 39 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 33–37 percent and right-wing governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema plus smaller candidates splitting the remaining vote. Brazil’s two-round electoral system requires over 50 percent for an outright win on October 4, a threshold no leading contender has approached amid a polarized and fragmented field. This distribution, consistent across Quaest, Ideia, and Futura surveys, sustains trader consensus that a runoff remains the probable outcome, with any late consolidation or withdrawal unlikely to alter the math before the first round.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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