Brazil’s Senate has never impeached an STF justice despite repeated petitions, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes, reflecting entrenched procedural and political safeguards. A two-thirds Senate vote threshold, combined with recent STF efforts to limit standing for complaints and the current congressional alignment favoring the Lula administration, sustains trader consensus that removal before 2027 is highly unlikely. Historical precedent of Senate inaction reinforces this view. A decisive Senate majority shift after the 2026 elections, an unforeseen institutional crisis, or major new allegations advancing through the Prosecutor-General could still create openings for proceedings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
3% probabilidad
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never impeached an STF justice despite repeated petitions, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes, reflecting entrenched procedural and political safeguards. A two-thirds Senate vote threshold, combined with recent STF efforts to limit standing for complaints and the current congressional alignment favoring the Lula administration, sustains trader consensus that removal before 2027 is highly unlikely. Historical precedent of Senate inaction reinforces this view. A decisive Senate majority shift after the 2026 elections, an unforeseen institutional crisis, or major new allegations advancing through the Prosecutor-General could still create openings for proceedings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volumen
$83,546Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never impeached an STF justice despite repeated petitions, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes, reflecting entrenched procedural and political safeguards. A two-thirds Senate vote threshold, combined with recent STF efforts to limit standing for complaints and the current congressional alignment favoring the Lula administration, sustains trader consensus that removal before 2027 is highly unlikely. Historical precedent of Senate inaction reinforces this view. A decisive Senate majority shift after the 2026 elections, an unforeseen institutional crisis, or major new allegations advancing through the Prosecutor-General could still create openings for proceedings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$83,546Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil’s Senate has never impeached an STF justice despite repeated petitions, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes, reflecting entrenched procedural and political safeguards. A two-thirds Senate vote threshold, combined with recent STF efforts to limit standing for complaints and the current congressional alignment favoring the Lula administration, sustains trader consensus that removal before 2027 is highly unlikely. Historical precedent of Senate inaction reinforces this view. A decisive Senate majority shift after the 2026 elections, an unforeseen institutional crisis, or major new allegations advancing through the Prosecutor-General could still create openings for proceedings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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