**Recent internal STF conflicts and Senate impeachment petitions have not overcome the high procedural and political barriers to removal.** Allegations surfaced in early September 2026 linking Justice Alexandre de Moraes to banker Daniel Vorcaro of the failed Banco Master via messages and his wife’s law firm’s consulting contract. Justice André Mendonça disclosed related Federal Police material, prompting mutual accusations of misconduct, dozens of Senate petitions (over 55 against Moraes), and media calls for resignation or impeachment. The September 15 STF session on opening an investigation ended in deadlock and a postponement after Justice Flávio Dino requested more time, potentially delaying resolution up to 90 days—likely past the October presidential election. Chief Justice Edson Fachin has taken steps to contain the crisis, including reassigning certain probes. Moraes and allies on the court frame the moves as politically motivated retaliation tied to his prior rulings against Jair Bolsonaro and allies. Brazil’s Senate has never removed a sitting STF justice in the modern era, and removal requires assembling a supermajority amid a closely contested election cycle where the Lula government and court majorities retain influence. Traders price the “No” outcome at 83% because these institutional protections, procedural delays, and vote thresholds outweigh the current scandal’s momentum absent a decisive break in Senate support or court consensus.