Elevated Selic rates near 15%, the highest in nearly two decades, have tightened credit conditions and curbed domestic demand, positioning Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.9%–2.2% range as the market’s leading outcome with 52.4% implied probability. Resilient high-frequency indicators, including rising retail sales and services PMIs above 52, alongside base effects from a softer prior quarter, support this moderate expansion. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus sit near 1.9%, while oil-price volatility introduces downside risks. Traders are now focused on the IBGE release scheduled for May 29, which will resolve the contract against these aggregated probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB de Brasil en el primer trimestre de 2026?
¿Crecimiento del PIB de Brasil en el primer trimestre de 2026?
1,9%–2,2% 53.1%
1,5%–1,8% 10%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
≥2,7% 4.7%
$20,790 Vol.
$20,790 Vol.
29 may 2026
<0,7%
3%
0,7%–1,0%
2%
1,1%–1,4%
3%
1,5%–1,8%
27%
1,9%–2,2%
53%
2.3%–2.6%
18%
≥2,7%
10%
1,9%–2,2% 53.1%
1,5%–1,8% 10%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
≥2,7% 4.7%
$20,790 Vol.
$20,790 Vol.
29 may 2026
<0,7%
$14,389 Vol.
3%
0,7%–1,0%
$660 Vol.
2%
1,1%–1,4%
$506 Vol.
3%
1,5%–1,8%
$1,042 Vol.
27%
1,9%–2,2%
$1,635 Vol.
53%
2.3%–2.6%
$732 Vol.
18%
≥2,7%
$1,827 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 15%, the highest in nearly two decades, have tightened credit conditions and curbed domestic demand, positioning Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.9%–2.2% range as the market’s leading outcome with 52.4% implied probability. Resilient high-frequency indicators, including rising retail sales and services PMIs above 52, alongside base effects from a softer prior quarter, support this moderate expansion. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus sit near 1.9%, while oil-price volatility introduces downside risks. Traders are now focused on the IBGE release scheduled for May 29, which will resolve the contract against these aggregated probabilities.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volumen
$20,790Fecha de finalización
29 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 15%, the highest in nearly two decades, have tightened credit conditions and curbed domestic demand, positioning Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.9%–2.2% range as the market’s leading outcome with 52.4% implied probability. Resilient high-frequency indicators, including rising retail sales and services PMIs above 52, alongside base effects from a softer prior quarter, support this moderate expansion. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus sit near 1.9%, while oil-price volatility introduces downside risks. Traders are now focused on the IBGE release scheduled for May 29, which will resolve the contract against these aggregated probabilities.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$20,790Fecha de finalización
29 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated Selic rates near 15%, the highest in nearly two decades, have tightened credit conditions and curbed domestic demand, positioning Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.9%–2.2% range as the market’s leading outcome with 52.4% implied probability. Resilient high-frequency indicators, including rising retail sales and services PMIs above 52, alongside base effects from a softer prior quarter, support this moderate expansion. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus sit near 1.9%, while oil-price volatility introduces downside risks. Traders are now focused on the IBGE release scheduled for May 29, which will resolve the contract against these aggregated probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes