Canada's first-ever annual population decline in 2025—down 0.2% or over 100,000 people, confirmed by Statistics Canada on March 18, 2026—set the record benchmark amid sharp reductions in non-permanent residents under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which caps permanent residents at 380,000 yearly while curbing temporary arrivals. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections from late February anticipate flat growth in 2026, with quarterly estimates through Q1 showing continued shrinkage from net emigration outpacing natural increase. The slight trader edge toward "No" at 51.5% reflects this balanced outlook, where a minor decline might not exceed 2025's or growth could resume; accelerating departures or tighter visa enforcement could tip toward "Yes," while rebounding inflows or higher births might solidify "No."
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Será la caída de la población de Canadá en 2026 la más grande registrada?
¿Será la caída de la población de Canadá en 2026 la más grande registrada?
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 abr 2027
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 abr 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's first-ever annual population decline in 2025—down 0.2% or over 100,000 people, confirmed by Statistics Canada on March 18, 2026—set the record benchmark amid sharp reductions in non-permanent residents under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which caps permanent residents at 380,000 yearly while curbing temporary arrivals. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections from late February anticipate flat growth in 2026, with quarterly estimates through Q1 showing continued shrinkage from net emigration outpacing natural increase. The slight trader edge toward "No" at 51.5% reflects this balanced outlook, where a minor decline might not exceed 2025's or growth could resume; accelerating departures or tighter visa enforcement could tip toward "Yes," while rebounding inflows or higher births might solidify "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volumen
$1,509Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's first-ever annual population decline in 2025—down 0.2% or over 100,000 people, confirmed by Statistics Canada on March 18, 2026—set the record benchmark amid sharp reductions in non-permanent residents under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which caps permanent residents at 380,000 yearly while curbing temporary arrivals. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections from late February anticipate flat growth in 2026, with quarterly estimates through Q1 showing continued shrinkage from net emigration outpacing natural increase. The slight trader edge toward "No" at 51.5% reflects this balanced outlook, where a minor decline might not exceed 2025's or growth could resume; accelerating departures or tighter visa enforcement could tip toward "Yes," while rebounding inflows or higher births might solidify "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,509Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's first-ever annual population decline in 2025—down 0.2% or over 100,000 people, confirmed by Statistics Canada on March 18, 2026—set the record benchmark amid sharp reductions in non-permanent residents under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which caps permanent residents at 380,000 yearly while curbing temporary arrivals. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections from late February anticipate flat growth in 2026, with quarterly estimates through Q1 showing continued shrinkage from net emigration outpacing natural increase. The slight trader edge toward "No" at 51.5% reflects this balanced outlook, where a minor decline might not exceed 2025's or growth could resume; accelerating departures or tighter visa enforcement could tip toward "Yes," while rebounding inflows or higher births might solidify "No."
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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