The surprising July 2026 nonfarm payrolls report—showing a 23,000 job decline versus expectations near +80,000, alongside 103,000 downward revisions to prior months—has shifted trader focus toward potential labor-market softening and anchored the highest market-implied odds on the 0–50k and negative August ranges. Persistent core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year and the Fed’s steady 3.50–3.75% policy range add uncertainty, as weaker hiring data could ease rate-hike pressures while still leaving room for modest positive prints if service-sector resilience holds. Key swing factors include August CPI on the 12th and any further JOLTS or claims surprises that could clarify whether the July weakness was transitory or the start of a sustained slowdown.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0 – 50 mil 26%
-50k – 0 22%
50.000 – 100.000 16%
150k+ 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 sep 2026
<-50k
9%
-50k – 0
22%
0 – 50 mil
26%
50.000 – 100.000
16%
100k – 150k
12%
150k+
17%
0 – 50 mil 26%
-50k – 0 22%
50.000 – 100.000 16%
150k+ 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 sep 2026
<-50k
$110 Vol.
9%
-50k – 0
$167 Vol.
22%
0 – 50 mil
$4,287 Vol.
26%
50.000 – 100.000
$107 Vol.
16%
100k – 150k
$79 Vol.
12%
150k+
$106 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThe surprising July 2026 nonfarm payrolls report—showing a 23,000 job decline versus expectations near +80,000, alongside 103,000 downward revisions to prior months—has shifted trader focus toward potential labor-market softening and anchored the highest market-implied odds on the 0–50k and negative August ranges. Persistent core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year and the Fed’s steady 3.50–3.75% policy range add uncertainty, as weaker hiring data could ease rate-hike pressures while still leaving room for modest positive prints if service-sector resilience holds. Key swing factors include August CPI on the 12th and any further JOLTS or claims surprises that could clarify whether the July weakness was transitory or the start of a sustained slowdown.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Mercado abierto: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Volumen
$4,826Fecha de finalización
5 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThe surprising July 2026 nonfarm payrolls report—showing a 23,000 job decline versus expectations near +80,000, alongside 103,000 downward revisions to prior months—has shifted trader focus toward potential labor-market softening and anchored the highest market-implied odds on the 0–50k and negative August ranges. Persistent core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year and the Fed’s steady 3.50–3.75% policy range add uncertainty, as weaker hiring data could ease rate-hike pressures while still leaving room for modest positive prints if service-sector resilience holds. Key swing factors include August CPI on the 12th and any further JOLTS or claims surprises that could clarify whether the July weakness was transitory or the start of a sustained slowdown.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volumen
$4,826Fecha de finalización
5 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...The surprising July 2026 nonfarm payrolls report—showing a 23,000 job decline versus expectations near +80,000, alongside 103,000 downward revisions to prior months—has shifted trader focus toward potential labor-market softening and anchored the highest market-implied odds on the 0–50k and negative August ranges. Persistent core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year and the Fed’s steady 3.50–3.75% policy range add uncertainty, as weaker hiring data could ease rate-hike pressures while still leaving room for modest positive prints if service-sector resilience holds. Key swing factors include August CPI on the 12th and any further JOLTS or claims surprises that could clarify whether the July weakness was transitory or the start of a sustained slowdown.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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