Recent U.S. labor data show the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026, down from 4.2% in June, with nonfarm payrolls nearly flat amid a labor market near maximum employment. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through July, prioritizing persistent inflation above target while noting solid productivity and job gains keeping pace with workforce expansion. Analyst forecasts point to modest job growth and an unemployment rate averaging near 4.3–4.5% through year-end, with limited downside risks from monetary policy restraint. Upcoming catalysts include the September 4 jobs report and FOMC decisions, which could clarify whether cooling demand pushes the peak higher than current levels.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$481,360 Vol.
10 ene 2026
5,0%
10%
5.5%
8%
6.0%
7%
7.0%
5%
10,0%
3%
$481,360 Vol.
5,0%
$123,066 Vol.
10%
5.5%
$200,573 Vol.
8%
6.0%
$75,518 Vol.
7%
7.0%
$31,207 Vol.
5%
10,0%
$50,996 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor data show the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026, down from 4.2% in June, with nonfarm payrolls nearly flat amid a labor market near maximum employment. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through July, prioritizing persistent inflation above target while noting solid productivity and job gains keeping pace with workforce expansion. Analyst forecasts point to modest job growth and an unemployment rate averaging near 4.3–4.5% through year-end, with limited downside risks from monetary policy restraint. Upcoming catalysts include the September 4 jobs report and FOMC decisions, which could clarify whether cooling demand pushes the peak higher than current levels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volumen
$481,360Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor data show the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026, down from 4.2% in June, with nonfarm payrolls nearly flat amid a labor market near maximum employment. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through July, prioritizing persistent inflation above target while noting solid productivity and job gains keeping pace with workforce expansion. Analyst forecasts point to modest job growth and an unemployment rate averaging near 4.3–4.5% through year-end, with limited downside risks from monetary policy restraint. Upcoming catalysts include the September 4 jobs report and FOMC decisions, which could clarify whether cooling demand pushes the peak higher than current levels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$481,360Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. labor data show the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026, down from 4.2% in June, with nonfarm payrolls nearly flat amid a labor market near maximum employment. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through July, prioritizing persistent inflation above target while noting solid productivity and job gains keeping pace with workforce expansion. Analyst forecasts point to modest job growth and an unemployment rate averaging near 4.3–4.5% through year-end, with limited downside risks from monetary policy restraint. Upcoming catalysts include the September 4 jobs report and FOMC decisions, which could clarify whether cooling demand pushes the peak higher than current levels.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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