Canada's federal government reinforced tighter immigration controls through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, capping permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while sharply reducing temporary resident targets to 385,000 for the year. This policy shift targets a reduction of the non-permanent resident share to below 5% of the total population by late 2027, producing sustained net outflows that offset permanent inflows. Statistics Canada data already recorded a 0.1% quarterly population drop in the first quarter of 2026 and the first annual decline since World War II in some measures. Parliamentary Budget Office projections confirm flat or negative growth for the full year as outflows from international students and temporary workers continue, directly supporting trader consensus on a net population decrease.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSubió
6% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 abr 2027
Subió
6% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 abr 2027
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's federal government reinforced tighter immigration controls through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, capping permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while sharply reducing temporary resident targets to 385,000 for the year. This policy shift targets a reduction of the non-permanent resident share to below 5% of the total population by late 2027, producing sustained net outflows that offset permanent inflows. Statistics Canada data already recorded a 0.1% quarterly population drop in the first quarter of 2026 and the first annual decline since World War II in some measures. Parliamentary Budget Office projections confirm flat or negative growth for the full year as outflows from international students and temporary workers continue, directly supporting trader consensus on a net population decrease.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$2,167Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's federal government reinforced tighter immigration controls through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, capping permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while sharply reducing temporary resident targets to 385,000 for the year. This policy shift targets a reduction of the non-permanent resident share to below 5% of the total population by late 2027, producing sustained net outflows that offset permanent inflows. Statistics Canada data already recorded a 0.1% quarterly population drop in the first quarter of 2026 and the first annual decline since World War II in some measures. Parliamentary Budget Office projections confirm flat or negative growth for the full year as outflows from international students and temporary workers continue, directly supporting trader consensus on a net population decrease.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,167Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's federal government reinforced tighter immigration controls through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, capping permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while sharply reducing temporary resident targets to 385,000 for the year. This policy shift targets a reduction of the non-permanent resident share to below 5% of the total population by late 2027, producing sustained net outflows that offset permanent inflows. Statistics Canada data already recorded a 0.1% quarterly population drop in the first quarter of 2026 and the first annual decline since World War II in some measures. Parliamentary Budget Office projections confirm flat or negative growth for the full year as outflows from international students and temporary workers continue, directly supporting trader consensus on a net population decrease.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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