Canada's federal government has sharply curtailed temporary resident inflows through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, targeting just 385,000 new arrivals (down substantially from prior years) while accelerating net outflows of non-permanent residents via tighter student and worker permit rules. Statistics Canada data confirm three consecutive quarters of population decline through Q1 2026, with non-permanent resident outflows offsetting roughly 380,000 annual permanent admissions and modest natural increase. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or negative net growth for the full year as authorities pursue a temporary resident share below 5 percent by late 2027. These verified policy and demographic trends underpin traders' strong consensus favoring an overall decrease.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSubió
6% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 abr 2027
Subió
6% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 abr 2027
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's federal government has sharply curtailed temporary resident inflows through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, targeting just 385,000 new arrivals (down substantially from prior years) while accelerating net outflows of non-permanent residents via tighter student and worker permit rules. Statistics Canada data confirm three consecutive quarters of population decline through Q1 2026, with non-permanent resident outflows offsetting roughly 380,000 annual permanent admissions and modest natural increase. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or negative net growth for the full year as authorities pursue a temporary resident share below 5 percent by late 2027. These verified policy and demographic trends underpin traders' strong consensus favoring an overall decrease.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$2,167Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's federal government has sharply curtailed temporary resident inflows through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, targeting just 385,000 new arrivals (down substantially from prior years) while accelerating net outflows of non-permanent residents via tighter student and worker permit rules. Statistics Canada data confirm three consecutive quarters of population decline through Q1 2026, with non-permanent resident outflows offsetting roughly 380,000 annual permanent admissions and modest natural increase. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or negative net growth for the full year as authorities pursue a temporary resident share below 5 percent by late 2027. These verified policy and demographic trends underpin traders' strong consensus favoring an overall decrease.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,167Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's federal government has sharply curtailed temporary resident inflows through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, targeting just 385,000 new arrivals (down substantially from prior years) while accelerating net outflows of non-permanent residents via tighter student and worker permit rules. Statistics Canada data confirm three consecutive quarters of population decline through Q1 2026, with non-permanent resident outflows offsetting roughly 380,000 annual permanent admissions and modest natural increase. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or negative net growth for the full year as authorities pursue a temporary resident share below 5 percent by late 2027. These verified policy and demographic trends underpin traders' strong consensus favoring an overall decrease.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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