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icon for Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

icon for Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Up

28% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO

Up

28% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s population trajectory in 2026 is shaped by the federal government’s 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which stabilizes permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while sharply cutting new temporary resident targets, including a 49% drop in international students and 37% reduction in temporary workers. These measures, introduced in late 2025, seek to bring the non-permanent resident share below 5% of the total population. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections and Statistics Canada data indicate that outflows of non-permanent residents are offsetting permanent inflows and natural increase, resulting in flat or contracting population growth through mid-2026. Trader consensus assigning 62.5% probability to a decline reflects these verified policy-driven reductions in net migration.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,626
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027
Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s population trajectory in 2026 is shaped by the federal government’s 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which stabilizes permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while sharply cutting new temporary resident targets, including a 49% drop in international students and 37% reduction in temporary workers. These measures, introduced in late 2025, seek to bring the non-permanent resident share below 5% of the total population. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections and Statistics Canada data indicate that outflows of non-permanent residents are offsetting permanent inflows and natural increase, resulting in flat or contracting population growth through mid-2026. Trader consensus assigning 62.5% probability to a decline reflects these verified policy-driven reductions in net migration.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,626
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027
Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" es un mercado de predicción diario en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre si el precio de Canada's population Up or Down this year? terminará más alto ("Up") o más bajo ("Down") que su precio de apertura durante la ventana diario especificada en el título. La probabilidad actual del mercado es 73% para "Down". Un precio de 73% significa que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 73% a ese resultado. Los precios se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores reaccionan a los movimientos de precio en vivo de Canada's population Up or Down this year?. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" es un mercado activo a corto plazo en Polymarket. El volumen de trading puede acumularse rápidamente a medida que avanza la ventana diario, entra temprano para ayudar a establecer las probabilidades antes de que esta ventana cierre.

Para operar en "Canada's population Up or Down this year?", decide si crees que el precio de Canada's population Up or Down this year? al mediodía ET del April 29 será más alto ("Up") o más bajo ("Down") que al mediodía ET del January 27. Compra "Up" si crees que el precio subirá, o "Down" si crees que bajará. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado es correcto, cada acción paga $1,00. Si es incorrecto, las acciones valen $0.

La probabilidad actual para "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" es 73% para "Down", lo que significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente asigna una probabilidad de 73% de que el precio de Canada's population Up or Down this year? terminará down durante esta ventana diario. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores reaccionan a los datos de precio en vivo de Canada's population Up or Down this year?. Durante un día completo, las probabilidades reflejan el sentimiento en evolución a medida que se desarrolla la acción de precio del día. Vuelve con frecuencia u opera ahora antes de que la ventana cierre.

El mercado "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" se resuelve comparando el precio de Canada's population Up or Down this year? al mediodía ET del April 29 con el del mediodía ET del January 27, usando los precios de cierre de velas de 1 minuto de Binance CANADAS-POPULATION/USDT. Si el precio al mediodía del April 29 es mayor, el resultado es "Up"; si es menor, "Down"; si es igual, el mercado se resuelve 50-50. Puedes revisar los criterios completos en la sección "Reglas".