Recent data releases have propelled the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q3 2026 to 5.1% annualized, up from 4.4% on September 10, primarily reflecting stronger personal consumption expenditures at 4.1% and government spending at 2.3%. This momentum underpins the 49.5% market-implied probability for growth at or above 3.0%, consistent with resilient consumer spending and a labor market where unemployment held at 4.1% in August alongside 162,000 payroll gains. The FOMC’s September median projection of 2.3% real GDP growth for 2026 (Q4/Q4) tempers expectations for the full year, while elevated inflation readings continue to influence policy. Traders will monitor the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate and additional monthly indicators for confirmation or revision of the quarterly pace.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado≥3.0% 50%
2.0–2.5% 21%
2.5–3.0% 15%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$27,965 Vol.
$27,965 Vol.
29 oct 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
9%
2.0–2.5%
21%
2.5–3.0%
15%
≥3.0%
50%
≥3.0% 50%
2.0–2.5% 21%
2.5–3.0% 15%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$27,965 Vol.
$27,965 Vol.
29 oct 2026
<0.5%
$906 Vol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$559 Vol.
4%
1.0–1.5%
$660 Vol.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$718 Vol.
9%
2.0–2.5%
$1,890 Vol.
21%
2.5–3.0%
$3,411 Vol.
15%
≥3.0%
$19,822 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent data releases have propelled the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q3 2026 to 5.1% annualized, up from 4.4% on September 10, primarily reflecting stronger personal consumption expenditures at 4.1% and government spending at 2.3%. This momentum underpins the 49.5% market-implied probability for growth at or above 3.0%, consistent with resilient consumer spending and a labor market where unemployment held at 4.1% in August alongside 162,000 payroll gains. The FOMC’s September median projection of 2.3% real GDP growth for 2026 (Q4/Q4) tempers expectations for the full year, while elevated inflation readings continue to influence policy. Traders will monitor the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate and additional monthly indicators for confirmation or revision of the quarterly pace.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volumen
$27,965Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent data releases have propelled the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q3 2026 to 5.1% annualized, up from 4.4% on September 10, primarily reflecting stronger personal consumption expenditures at 4.1% and government spending at 2.3%. This momentum underpins the 49.5% market-implied probability for growth at or above 3.0%, consistent with resilient consumer spending and a labor market where unemployment held at 4.1% in August alongside 162,000 payroll gains. The FOMC’s September median projection of 2.3% real GDP growth for 2026 (Q4/Q4) tempers expectations for the full year, while elevated inflation readings continue to influence policy. Traders will monitor the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate and additional monthly indicators for confirmation or revision of the quarterly pace.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$27,965Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent data releases have propelled the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q3 2026 to 5.1% annualized, up from 4.4% on September 10, primarily reflecting stronger personal consumption expenditures at 4.1% and government spending at 2.3%. This momentum underpins the 49.5% market-implied probability for growth at or above 3.0%, consistent with resilient consumer spending and a labor market where unemployment held at 4.1% in August alongside 162,000 payroll gains. The FOMC’s September median projection of 2.3% real GDP growth for 2026 (Q4/Q4) tempers expectations for the full year, while elevated inflation readings continue to influence policy. Traders will monitor the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate and additional monthly indicators for confirmation or revision of the quarterly pace.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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