Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction tied to the government shutdown, has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion. Strong business investment in AI-related equipment and software, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, underpins the 43.5% implied probability for full-year growth above 2.5%, while tariff pass-through and tighter immigration policies introduce downward pressure that supports the combined 43.3% odds on sub-2.0% outcomes. Professional forecasters’ consensus, including the Philadelphia Fed survey projecting 2.5% and CBO at 2.2%, aligns with these market-implied odds, with upcoming Q2 GDP and labor-market releases likely to refine rate expectations further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCrecimiento del PIB en 2026
Crecimiento del PIB en 2026
<0.5% 32.1%
2.0–2.5% 19%
1,5–2,0% 16.9%
0.5–1.0% 12.5%
$28,075 Vol.
$28,075 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
32%
0.5–1.0%
13%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1,5–2,0%
17%
2.0–2.5%
24%
>2,5%
35%
<0.5% 32.1%
2.0–2.5% 19%
1,5–2,0% 16.9%
0.5–1.0% 12.5%
$28,075 Vol.
$28,075 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
$3,879 Vol.
32%
0.5–1.0%
$15,278 Vol.
13%
1.0–1.5%
$1,535 Vol.
12%
1,5–2,0%
$1,504 Vol.
17%
2.0–2.5%
$1,819 Vol.
24%
>2,5%
$4,061 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction tied to the government shutdown, has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion. Strong business investment in AI-related equipment and software, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, underpins the 43.5% implied probability for full-year growth above 2.5%, while tariff pass-through and tighter immigration policies introduce downward pressure that supports the combined 43.3% odds on sub-2.0% outcomes. Professional forecasters’ consensus, including the Philadelphia Fed survey projecting 2.5% and CBO at 2.2%, aligns with these market-implied odds, with upcoming Q2 GDP and labor-market releases likely to refine rate expectations further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$28,075Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction tied to the government shutdown, has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion. Strong business investment in AI-related equipment and software, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, underpins the 43.5% implied probability for full-year growth above 2.5%, while tariff pass-through and tighter immigration policies introduce downward pressure that supports the combined 43.3% odds on sub-2.0% outcomes. Professional forecasters’ consensus, including the Philadelphia Fed survey projecting 2.5% and CBO at 2.2%, aligns with these market-implied odds, with upcoming Q2 GDP and labor-market releases likely to refine rate expectations further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$28,075Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction tied to the government shutdown, has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion. Strong business investment in AI-related equipment and software, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, underpins the 43.5% implied probability for full-year growth above 2.5%, while tariff pass-through and tighter immigration policies introduce downward pressure that supports the combined 43.3% odds on sub-2.0% outcomes. Professional forecasters’ consensus, including the Philadelphia Fed survey projecting 2.5% and CBO at 2.2%, aligns with these market-implied odds, with upcoming Q2 GDP and labor-market releases likely to refine rate expectations further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes