Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth remains closely balanced between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets, reflecting uncertainty around the net impact of fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act against persistent tariff and immigration-related drags. Recent data show Q1 2026 real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate, while business investment in AI infrastructure continues to support activity even as consumer spending faces affordability constraints. The Federal Reserve’s hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range, amid core PCE inflation near 3%, signals limited near-term monetary easing that could otherwise bolster growth. Professional forecasters cluster around 2.0–2.3% for the full year, underscoring how further labor-market softening or stronger productivity gains from capital expenditure could shift the distribution between the leading outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCrecimiento del PIB en 2026
Crecimiento del PIB en 2026
2.0–2.5% 32%
1,5–2,0% 32.4%
>2,5% 19%
1.0–1.5% 9.8%
$58,052 Vol.
$58,052 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
8%
0.5–1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
10%
1,5–2,0%
32%
2.0–2.5%
32%
>2,5%
19%
2.0–2.5% 32%
1,5–2,0% 32.4%
>2,5% 19%
1.0–1.5% 9.8%
$58,052 Vol.
$58,052 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
$7,439 Vol.
8%
0.5–1.0%
$17,161 Vol.
2%
1.0–1.5%
$3,814 Vol.
10%
1,5–2,0%
$6,622 Vol.
32%
2.0–2.5%
$7,085 Vol.
32%
>2,5%
$15,931 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth remains closely balanced between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets, reflecting uncertainty around the net impact of fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act against persistent tariff and immigration-related drags. Recent data show Q1 2026 real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate, while business investment in AI infrastructure continues to support activity even as consumer spending faces affordability constraints. The Federal Reserve’s hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range, amid core PCE inflation near 3%, signals limited near-term monetary easing that could otherwise bolster growth. Professional forecasters cluster around 2.0–2.3% for the full year, underscoring how further labor-market softening or stronger productivity gains from capital expenditure could shift the distribution between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$58,052Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth remains closely balanced between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets, reflecting uncertainty around the net impact of fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act against persistent tariff and immigration-related drags. Recent data show Q1 2026 real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate, while business investment in AI infrastructure continues to support activity even as consumer spending faces affordability constraints. The Federal Reserve’s hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range, amid core PCE inflation near 3%, signals limited near-term monetary easing that could otherwise bolster growth. Professional forecasters cluster around 2.0–2.3% for the full year, underscoring how further labor-market softening or stronger productivity gains from capital expenditure could shift the distribution between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$58,052Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth remains closely balanced between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets, reflecting uncertainty around the net impact of fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act against persistent tariff and immigration-related drags. Recent data show Q1 2026 real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate, while business investment in AI infrastructure continues to support activity even as consumer spending faces affordability constraints. The Federal Reserve’s hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range, amid core PCE inflation near 3%, signals limited near-term monetary easing that could otherwise bolster growth. Professional forecasters cluster around 2.0–2.3% for the full year, underscoring how further labor-market softening or stronger productivity gains from capital expenditure could shift the distribution between the leading outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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