Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11, 2026 Governing Council meeting, driven by April euro area CPI surging to 3.0%—up from 2.6% in March—fueled by a 10.9% energy price spike amid the Iran war. The ECB held rates steady on April 30 but signaled hikes in extensive internal debates, with Bundesbank President Nagel deeming them "increasingly likely" and a Reuters poll showing 85% of economists expecting the move alongside a second later in 2026. Stagflation risks loom from Q1 growth of just 0.1%, prioritizing inflation control; May CPI flash on May 29 could influence final positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 83%
No change 17.7%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$244,988 Vol.
$244,988 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
18%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
83%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 83%
No change 17.7%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$244,988 Vol.
$244,988 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$47,313 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$41,640 Vol.
<1%
No change
$49,536 Vol.
18%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$59,438 Vol.
83%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$47,061 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11, 2026 Governing Council meeting, driven by April euro area CPI surging to 3.0%—up from 2.6% in March—fueled by a 10.9% energy price spike amid the Iran war. The ECB held rates steady on April 30 but signaled hikes in extensive internal debates, with Bundesbank President Nagel deeming them "increasingly likely" and a Reuters poll showing 85% of economists expecting the move alongside a second later in 2026. Stagflation risks loom from Q1 growth of just 0.1%, prioritizing inflation control; May CPI flash on May 29 could influence final positioning.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$244,988Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11, 2026 Governing Council meeting, driven by April euro area CPI surging to 3.0%—up from 2.6% in March—fueled by a 10.9% energy price spike amid the Iran war. The ECB held rates steady on April 30 but signaled hikes in extensive internal debates, with Bundesbank President Nagel deeming them "increasingly likely" and a Reuters poll showing 85% of economists expecting the move alongside a second later in 2026. Stagflation risks loom from Q1 growth of just 0.1%, prioritizing inflation control; May CPI flash on May 29 could influence final positioning.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$244,988Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11, 2026 Governing Council meeting, driven by April euro area CPI surging to 3.0%—up from 2.6% in March—fueled by a 10.9% energy price spike amid the Iran war. The ECB held rates steady on April 30 but signaled hikes in extensive internal debates, with Bundesbank President Nagel deeming them "increasingly likely" and a Reuters poll showing 85% of economists expecting the move alongside a second later in 2026. Stagflation risks loom from Q1 growth of just 0.1%, prioritizing inflation control; May CPI flash on May 29 could influence final positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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