The 79.8% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% in June stems primarily from the central bank’s hawkish April 28 decision and the subsequent May 12 summary of opinions, which highlighted upside inflation risks from Middle East energy shocks and persistent yen weakness. With the current policy rate at 0.75%, traders are pricing in continued monetary policy normalization as fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts were raised to 2.8% amid solid wage growth and above-target price pressures. The 19.5% odds of no change capture residual uncertainty over geopolitical spillovers and growth downgrades, while probabilities for larger hikes or cuts remain negligible. The June 15–16 meeting and upcoming May inflation data represent the key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAumento de 25 puntos básicos 79.8%
Sin cambios 20%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 1.6%
Reducir tasas <1%
$114,875 Vol.
$114,875 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Reducir tasas
1%
Sin cambios
20%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
80%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
2%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 79.8%
Sin cambios 20%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 1.6%
Reducir tasas <1%
$114,875 Vol.
$114,875 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Reducir tasas
$34,145 Vol.
1%
Sin cambios
$28,983 Vol.
20%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$27,381 Vol.
80%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$24,366 Vol.
2%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The 79.8% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% in June stems primarily from the central bank’s hawkish April 28 decision and the subsequent May 12 summary of opinions, which highlighted upside inflation risks from Middle East energy shocks and persistent yen weakness. With the current policy rate at 0.75%, traders are pricing in continued monetary policy normalization as fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts were raised to 2.8% amid solid wage growth and above-target price pressures. The 19.5% odds of no change capture residual uncertainty over geopolitical spillovers and growth downgrades, while probabilities for larger hikes or cuts remain negligible. The June 15–16 meeting and upcoming May inflation data represent the key near-term catalysts.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volumen
$114,875Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The 79.8% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% in June stems primarily from the central bank’s hawkish April 28 decision and the subsequent May 12 summary of opinions, which highlighted upside inflation risks from Middle East energy shocks and persistent yen weakness. With the current policy rate at 0.75%, traders are pricing in continued monetary policy normalization as fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts were raised to 2.8% amid solid wage growth and above-target price pressures. The 19.5% odds of no change capture residual uncertainty over geopolitical spillovers and growth downgrades, while probabilities for larger hikes or cuts remain negligible. The June 15–16 meeting and upcoming May inflation data represent the key near-term catalysts.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$114,875Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 79.8% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% in June stems primarily from the central bank’s hawkish April 28 decision and the subsequent May 12 summary of opinions, which highlighted upside inflation risks from Middle East energy shocks and persistent yen weakness. With the current policy rate at 0.75%, traders are pricing in continued monetary policy normalization as fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts were raised to 2.8% amid solid wage growth and above-target price pressures. The 19.5% odds of no change capture residual uncertainty over geopolitical spillovers and growth downgrades, while probabilities for larger hikes or cuts remain negligible. The June 15–16 meeting and upcoming May inflation data represent the key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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