The April 2026 employment report, showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent alongside a modest 115,000 nonfarm payroll gain, anchors current trader positioning for the May reading. Weakening labor force participation, which fell to 61.8 percent, and rising long-term unemployment have tempered expectations for further declines, while tariff-related uncertainty and selective AI-driven hiring restraint limit upside job creation. With 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent outcomes separated by just four percentage points in market-implied odds, traders are pricing in a narrow range around recent stability; any deviation in May payrolls or household survey data could quickly shift the balance between these leading probabilities ahead of the early June release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMay Unemployment Rate
May Unemployment Rate
4.3% 38%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 16%
4.1% 13.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 jun 2026
≤3.9%
3%
4.0%
13%
4.1%
13%
4.2%
20%
4.3%
38%
4.4%
32%
4.5%
11%
4.6%
4%
≥4.7%
4%
4.3% 38%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 16%
4.1% 13.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 jun 2026
≤3.9%
$45 Vol.
3%
4.0%
$73 Vol.
13%
4.1%
$45 Vol.
13%
4.2%
$38 Vol.
20%
4.3%
$107 Vol.
38%
4.4%
$54 Vol.
32%
4.5%
$50 Vol.
11%
4.6%
$44 Vol.
4%
≥4.7%
$51 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The April 2026 employment report, showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent alongside a modest 115,000 nonfarm payroll gain, anchors current trader positioning for the May reading. Weakening labor force participation, which fell to 61.8 percent, and rising long-term unemployment have tempered expectations for further declines, while tariff-related uncertainty and selective AI-driven hiring restraint limit upside job creation. With 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent outcomes separated by just four percentage points in market-implied odds, traders are pricing in a narrow range around recent stability; any deviation in May payrolls or household survey data could quickly shift the balance between these leading probabilities ahead of the early June release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volumen
$508Fecha de finalización
5 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The April 2026 employment report, showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent alongside a modest 115,000 nonfarm payroll gain, anchors current trader positioning for the May reading. Weakening labor force participation, which fell to 61.8 percent, and rising long-term unemployment have tempered expectations for further declines, while tariff-related uncertainty and selective AI-driven hiring restraint limit upside job creation. With 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent outcomes separated by just four percentage points in market-implied odds, traders are pricing in a narrow range around recent stability; any deviation in May payrolls or household survey data could quickly shift the balance between these leading probabilities ahead of the early June release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$508Fecha de finalización
5 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The April 2026 employment report, showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent alongside a modest 115,000 nonfarm payroll gain, anchors current trader positioning for the May reading. Weakening labor force participation, which fell to 61.8 percent, and rising long-term unemployment have tempered expectations for further declines, while tariff-related uncertainty and selective AI-driven hiring restraint limit upside job creation. With 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent outcomes separated by just four percentage points in market-implied odds, traders are pricing in a narrow range around recent stability; any deviation in May payrolls or household survey data could quickly shift the balance between these leading probabilities ahead of the early June release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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