Strong first-half 2026 GDP prints and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative full-year growth. BEA data showed 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, driven by resilient consumer spending, AI-linked capital investment, and supportive fiscal measures that offset tariff and energy-related drags. Major projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private banks cluster between 2.0% and 2.5% for 2026 overall, reflecting above-trend momentum and a low recession probability. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, a sharp energy-price spike, or an unexpected tightening of financial conditions that could tip the second-half trajectory sharply lower.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
Sí
4% probabilidad
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 ene 2027
Sí
4% probabilidad
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 ene 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong first-half 2026 GDP prints and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative full-year growth. BEA data showed 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, driven by resilient consumer spending, AI-linked capital investment, and supportive fiscal measures that offset tariff and energy-related drags. Major projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private banks cluster between 2.0% and 2.5% for 2026 overall, reflecting above-trend momentum and a low recession probability. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, a sharp energy-price spike, or an unexpected tightening of financial conditions that could tip the second-half trajectory sharply lower.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$32,234Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong first-half 2026 GDP prints and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative full-year growth. BEA data showed 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, driven by resilient consumer spending, AI-linked capital investment, and supportive fiscal measures that offset tariff and energy-related drags. Major projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private banks cluster between 2.0% and 2.5% for 2026 overall, reflecting above-trend momentum and a low recession probability. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, a sharp energy-price spike, or an unexpected tightening of financial conditions that could tip the second-half trajectory sharply lower.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$32,234Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong first-half 2026 GDP prints and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative full-year growth. BEA data showed 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, driven by resilient consumer spending, AI-linked capital investment, and supportive fiscal measures that offset tariff and energy-related drags. Major projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private banks cluster between 2.0% and 2.5% for 2026 overall, reflecting above-trend momentum and a low recession probability. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, a sharp energy-price spike, or an unexpected tightening of financial conditions that could tip the second-half trajectory sharply lower.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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