Recent first-quarter U.S. GDP expansion of 2.0 percent annualized, driven by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and software, underpins trader confidence that full-year 2026 output will avoid contraction. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, Philadelphia Fed survey, and major banks cluster between 1.8 percent and 2.6 percent growth, reflecting fiscal support from prior tax measures, resilient consumer outlays, and easier financial conditions that outweigh tariff pressures and slower immigration. This pricing of an over-90-percent probability for positive growth aligns with low recession-risk estimates around 12 percent and historical base rates showing sustained expansion absent major shocks. Key swing factors include upcoming labor-market data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and any escalation in trade tensions that could dampen demand.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
Sí
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29 ene 2027
Sí
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29 ene 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent first-quarter U.S. GDP expansion of 2.0 percent annualized, driven by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and software, underpins trader confidence that full-year 2026 output will avoid contraction. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, Philadelphia Fed survey, and major banks cluster between 1.8 percent and 2.6 percent growth, reflecting fiscal support from prior tax measures, resilient consumer outlays, and easier financial conditions that outweigh tariff pressures and slower immigration. This pricing of an over-90-percent probability for positive growth aligns with low recession-risk estimates around 12 percent and historical base rates showing sustained expansion absent major shocks. Key swing factors include upcoming labor-market data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and any escalation in trade tensions that could dampen demand.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$26,508Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent first-quarter U.S. GDP expansion of 2.0 percent annualized, driven by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and software, underpins trader confidence that full-year 2026 output will avoid contraction. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, Philadelphia Fed survey, and major banks cluster between 1.8 percent and 2.6 percent growth, reflecting fiscal support from prior tax measures, resilient consumer outlays, and easier financial conditions that outweigh tariff pressures and slower immigration. This pricing of an over-90-percent probability for positive growth aligns with low recession-risk estimates around 12 percent and historical base rates showing sustained expansion absent major shocks. Key swing factors include upcoming labor-market data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and any escalation in trade tensions that could dampen demand.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$26,508Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent first-quarter U.S. GDP expansion of 2.0 percent annualized, driven by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and software, underpins trader confidence that full-year 2026 output will avoid contraction. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, Philadelphia Fed survey, and major banks cluster between 1.8 percent and 2.6 percent growth, reflecting fiscal support from prior tax measures, resilient consumer outlays, and easier financial conditions that outweigh tariff pressures and slower immigration. This pricing of an over-90-percent probability for positive growth aligns with low recession-risk estimates around 12 percent and historical base rates showing sustained expansion absent major shocks. Key swing factors include upcoming labor-market data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and any escalation in trade tensions that could dampen demand.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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