The closely matched probabilities between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues and challenger ACM Neto reflect a competitive Bahia gubernatorial race ahead of the October 2026 vote. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency, the Workers’ Party organizational structure, and alignment with President Lula’s federal government, which sustains support in key interior regions. Recent polls show ACM Neto, the former Salvador mayor from União Brasil, leading or in technical tie in several surveys, highlighting his strong name recognition and appeal in the capital and among centrist voters. The narrow trader consensus favoring Rodrigues slightly over Neto stems from historical PT dominance in the state and uncertainty over whether opposition momentum will translate into higher turnout. Late-campaign developments, including debates, economic indicators, or shifts in federal support, could widen the gap before first-round voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoBahia Governor Election Winner
Bahia Governor Election Winner
Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 Vol.
$13,694 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
52%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 Vol.
$13,694 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,666 Vol.
52%
ACM Neto
$3,660 Vol.
48%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$966 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The closely matched probabilities between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues and challenger ACM Neto reflect a competitive Bahia gubernatorial race ahead of the October 2026 vote. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency, the Workers’ Party organizational structure, and alignment with President Lula’s federal government, which sustains support in key interior regions. Recent polls show ACM Neto, the former Salvador mayor from União Brasil, leading or in technical tie in several surveys, highlighting his strong name recognition and appeal in the capital and among centrist voters. The narrow trader consensus favoring Rodrigues slightly over Neto stems from historical PT dominance in the state and uncertainty over whether opposition momentum will translate into higher turnout. Late-campaign developments, including debates, economic indicators, or shifts in federal support, could widen the gap before first-round voting.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volumen
$13,694Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The closely matched probabilities between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues and challenger ACM Neto reflect a competitive Bahia gubernatorial race ahead of the October 2026 vote. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency, the Workers’ Party organizational structure, and alignment with President Lula’s federal government, which sustains support in key interior regions. Recent polls show ACM Neto, the former Salvador mayor from União Brasil, leading or in technical tie in several surveys, highlighting his strong name recognition and appeal in the capital and among centrist voters. The narrow trader consensus favoring Rodrigues slightly over Neto stems from historical PT dominance in the state and uncertainty over whether opposition momentum will translate into higher turnout. Late-campaign developments, including debates, economic indicators, or shifts in federal support, could widen the gap before first-round voting.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$13,694Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues and challenger ACM Neto reflect a competitive Bahia gubernatorial race ahead of the October 2026 vote. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency, the Workers’ Party organizational structure, and alignment with President Lula’s federal government, which sustains support in key interior regions. Recent polls show ACM Neto, the former Salvador mayor from União Brasil, leading or in technical tie in several surveys, highlighting his strong name recognition and appeal in the capital and among centrist voters. The narrow trader consensus favoring Rodrigues slightly over Neto stems from historical PT dominance in the state and uncertainty over whether opposition momentum will translate into higher turnout. Late-campaign developments, including debates, economic indicators, or shifts in federal support, could widen the gap before first-round voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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