The Bahia gubernatorial contest remains a near-dead heat because incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues has stabilized his approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s through visible gains in education and infrastructure, offsetting earlier erosion while ACM Neto consolidates urban and right-leaning support after his party’s 2025 national break with the Lula administration. Recent Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys show the two candidates within or at the edge of the margin of error in first-round scenarios, with the August 9 debate producing no decisive shift. Neto’s alignment with broader opposition forces and strength in Salvador contrast with Rodrigues’s recovery among municipal leaders who previously backed the challenger, sustaining trader consensus that either candidate could prevail depending on turnout and late-cycle momentum. The October 4 first round, and possible runoff three weeks later, will determine the winner.