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Mundo·Elecciones Globales

¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?

icon for ¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?
Mundo·Elecciones Globales

¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?

$320,166 Vol.

4 oct 2026
Polymarket

$320,166 Vol.

Polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$134,615 Vol.

83%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$20,597 Vol.

72%

Fernando Haddad

$51,135 Vol.

8%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$26,595 Vol.

4%

Jair Bolsonaro

$11,175 Vol.

3%

Tarcisio de Freitas

$76,048 Vol.

3%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who secured his father's endorsement in December 2025 after Jair Bolsonaro became ineligible. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from March and April 2026, show Lula and Flávio statistically tied in simulated runoffs at roughly 46-48 percent each, while first-round projections place Lula near 44-46 percent and Flávio near 39-40 percent. Other declared candidates such as Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD continue to split right-leaning support, though endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate votes before the October ballot. Economic indicators, approval ratings around 44-47 percent for the president, and any late shifts among center-right governors remain the main variables that could determine which two candidates advance to the October 25 runoff.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$320,166
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who secured his father's endorsement in December 2025 after Jair Bolsonaro became ineligible. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from March and April 2026, show Lula and Flávio statistically tied in simulated runoffs at roughly 46-48 percent each, while first-round projections place Lula near 44-46 percent and Flávio near 39-40 percent. Other declared candidates such as Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD continue to split right-leaning support, though endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate votes before the October ballot. Economic indicators, approval ratings around 44-47 percent for the president, and any late shifts among center-right governors remain the main variables that could determine which two candidates advance to the October 25 runoff.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$320,166
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" con 83%, seguido de "Flavio Bolsonaro" con 72%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 83¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 83% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?" ha generado $320.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Sep 18, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?" es "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" con 83%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 83% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Flavio Bolsonaro" con 72%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.