Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, with both in the low-to-mid 40s percent range while other declared candidates trail in single digits. Multiple September surveys indicate the race has tightened, producing near-ties in simulated runoff matchups on October 25. Brazil’s two-round system advances only the top two finishers unless one secures an outright majority. Key variables include undecided voters, regional turnout patterns, and any late campaign developments or institutional rulings that could shift support among the roughly 160 million eligible voters.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?
¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?
$623,950 Vol.
3 oct 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
96%
Renan Santos
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Romeu Zema
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$623,950 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$280,143 Vol.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$107,412 Vol.
96%
Renan Santos
$26,151 Vol.
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$37,775 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$833 Vol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$17,749 Vol.
1%
Romeu Zema
$1,434 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$86,584 Vol.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,870 Vol.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, with both in the low-to-mid 40s percent range while other declared candidates trail in single digits. Multiple September surveys indicate the race has tightened, producing near-ties in simulated runoff matchups on October 25. Brazil’s two-round system advances only the top two finishers unless one secures an outright majority. Key variables include undecided voters, regional turnout patterns, and any late campaign developments or institutional rulings that could shift support among the roughly 160 million eligible voters.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ET
Volumen
$623,950Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, with both in the low-to-mid 40s percent range while other declared candidates trail in single digits. Multiple September surveys indicate the race has tightened, producing near-ties in simulated runoff matchups on October 25. Brazil’s two-round system advances only the top two finishers unless one secures an outright majority. Key variables include undecided voters, regional turnout patterns, and any late campaign developments or institutional rulings that could shift support among the roughly 160 million eligible voters.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$623,950Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, with both in the low-to-mid 40s percent range while other declared candidates trail in single digits. Multiple September surveys indicate the race has tightened, producing near-ties in simulated runoff matchups on October 25. Brazil’s two-round system advances only the top two finishers unless one secures an outright majority. Key variables include undecided voters, regional turnout patterns, and any late campaign developments or institutional rulings that could shift support among the roughly 160 million eligible voters.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Algún candidato presidencial ganará en la primera vuelta de las elecciones de Brasil?
6%
Sí
¿Ganará Lula la mayor cantidad de votos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil de 2026?
77%
Sí
¿Terminará Flávio Bolsonaro en segundo lugar en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
77%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes