Flávio Bolsonaro remains under a Supreme Court inquiry opened in July into alleged corruption, money laundering, and related offenses tied to film financing from a disgraced banker, with related documents unsealed in mid-September. As a sitting senator and leading presidential candidate, procedural protections, Senate status, and the compressed nine-day window to September 30 create significant barriers to formal charges or arrest by Brazilian authorities. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no reflects the absence of imminent action despite the active probe and separate scrutiny over legislative amendments. Late-breaking evidence or an expedited judicial order could still alter the outcome before the deadline, though such steps remain uncommon in this timeframe.