Recent polling averages show Mary Peltola leading incumbent Dan Sullivan by 1–3 points among likely voters in the November 3 general election, with multiple October surveys placing her at 47–51% and Sullivan at 43–49% in the four-candidate field that includes ranked-choice voting. Peltola’s record fundraising exceeding $17 million in the third quarter, combined with Democratic emphasis on energy costs and fisheries, has contributed to trader assessments favoring her path to victory. Sullivan has countered with Republican support on resource development and a late-October campaign visit from President Trump, while a Justice Department lawsuit filed October 23 seeks to address potential ballot confusion from two candidates named Sullivan. The race remains closely contested with limited time before ballots are cast.