**Two Republican Senate incumbents—Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and John Cornyn (Texas)—have already lost renomination in their 2026 primaries to challengers, including Trump-backed candidates, establishing the floor at two losses.** Joni Ernst (Iowa) opted not to seek reelection, though this does not count toward primary defeats. With most other GOP Senate incumbents, such as Bill Hagerty (Tennessee) and Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), securing or appearing on track for renomination in completed or low-contest races, trader consensus at 82% for exactly three losses reflects expectations of one additional upset in remaining primaries. These contests have featured intra-party challenges often tied to presidential endorsements and ideological positioning, consistent with patterns of elevated incumbent vulnerability this cycle while remaining below levels that would push probabilities toward four or more.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado3 82.0%
2 7.6%
4 7.6%
>4 4.9%
$54,320 Vol.
$54,320 Vol.
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
8%
3
82%
4
8%
>4
5%
3 82.0%
2 7.6%
4 7.6%
>4 4.9%
$54,320 Vol.
$54,320 Vol.
0
$4,201 Vol.
<1%
1
$3,323 Vol.
<1%
2
$30,706 Vol.
8%
3
$7,548 Vol.
82%
4
$4,541 Vol.
8%
>4
$4,000 Vol.
5%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Two Republican Senate incumbents—Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and John Cornyn (Texas)—have already lost renomination in their 2026 primaries to challengers, including Trump-backed candidates, establishing the floor at two losses.**
Joni Ernst (Iowa) opted not to seek reelection, though this does not count toward primary defeats. With most other GOP Senate incumbents, such as Bill Hagerty (Tennessee) and Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), securing or appearing on track for renomination in completed or low-contest races, trader consensus at 82% for exactly three losses reflects expectations of one additional upset in remaining primaries. These contests have featured intra-party challenges often tied to presidential endorsements and ideological positioning, consistent with patterns of elevated incumbent vulnerability this cycle while remaining below levels that would push probabilities toward four or more.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volumen
$54,320Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Two Republican Senate incumbents—Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and John Cornyn (Texas)—have already lost renomination in their 2026 primaries to challengers, including Trump-backed candidates, establishing the floor at two losses.**
Joni Ernst (Iowa) opted not to seek reelection, though this does not count toward primary defeats. With most other GOP Senate incumbents, such as Bill Hagerty (Tennessee) and Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), securing or appearing on track for renomination in completed or low-contest races, trader consensus at 82% for exactly three losses reflects expectations of one additional upset in remaining primaries. These contests have featured intra-party challenges often tied to presidential endorsements and ideological positioning, consistent with patterns of elevated incumbent vulnerability this cycle while remaining below levels that would push probabilities toward four or more.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$54,320Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Two Republican Senate incumbents—Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and John Cornyn (Texas)—have already lost renomination in their 2026 primaries to challengers, including Trump-backed candidates, establishing the floor at two losses.** Joni Ernst (Iowa) opted not to seek reelection, though this does not count toward primary defeats. With most other GOP Senate incumbents, such as Bill Hagerty (Tennessee) and Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), securing or appearing on track for renomination in completed or low-contest races, trader consensus at 82% for exactly three losses reflects expectations of one additional upset in remaining primaries. These contests have featured intra-party challenges often tied to presidential endorsements and ideological positioning, consistent with patterns of elevated incumbent vulnerability this cycle while remaining below levels that would push probabilities toward four or more.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Ganarían los senadores demócratas titulares todas sus elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
79%
Sí
¿No ganarán los titulares republicanos de la Cámara entre cuatro y seis elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
93%
Sí
¿No ganarán los titulares demócratas de la Cámara entre diez y doce elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
49%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes