Recent Republican House primary results, including defeats for Dan Crenshaw in Texas, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Cory Mills in Florida, have established a baseline of four incumbent losses amid Trump-aligned challenges and ethics-related vulnerabilities. With dozens of remaining 2026 nominating contests scheduled through September, trader consensus on a 4-6 total reflects limited additional upset potential based on current candidate fields, endorsements, and fundraising patterns. Outcomes could shift higher if late scandals or well-funded challengers emerge in battleground districts, or lower only through unusually high incumbent survival rates in the final wave of votes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos titulares republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no ganarán sus primarias?
¿Cuántos titulares republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no ganarán sus primarias?
4-6 94.2%
7-9 3.9%
10-12 2.4%
>15 1.1%
$85,150 Vol.
$85,150 Vol.
≤3
<1%
4-6
94%
7-9
4%
10-12
2%
13-15
1%
>15
1%
4-6 94.2%
7-9 3.9%
10-12 2.4%
>15 1.1%
$85,150 Vol.
$85,150 Vol.
≤3
$38,821 Vol.
<1%
4-6
$28,152 Vol.
94%
7-9
$6,476 Vol.
4%
10-12
$5,051 Vol.
2%
13-15
$3,933 Vol.
1%
>15
$2,716 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent Republican House primary results, including defeats for Dan Crenshaw in Texas, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Cory Mills in Florida, have established a baseline of four incumbent losses amid Trump-aligned challenges and ethics-related vulnerabilities. With dozens of remaining 2026 nominating contests scheduled through September, trader consensus on a 4-6 total reflects limited additional upset potential based on current candidate fields, endorsements, and fundraising patterns. Outcomes could shift higher if late scandals or well-funded challengers emerge in battleground districts, or lower only through unusually high incumbent survival rates in the final wave of votes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volumen
$85,150Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent Republican House primary results, including defeats for Dan Crenshaw in Texas, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Cory Mills in Florida, have established a baseline of four incumbent losses amid Trump-aligned challenges and ethics-related vulnerabilities. With dozens of remaining 2026 nominating contests scheduled through September, trader consensus on a 4-6 total reflects limited additional upset potential based on current candidate fields, endorsements, and fundraising patterns. Outcomes could shift higher if late scandals or well-funded challengers emerge in battleground districts, or lower only through unusually high incumbent survival rates in the final wave of votes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$85,150Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Recent Republican House primary results, including defeats for Dan Crenshaw in Texas, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Cory Mills in Florida, have established a baseline of four incumbent losses amid Trump-aligned challenges and ethics-related vulnerabilities. With dozens of remaining 2026 nominating contests scheduled through September, trader consensus on a 4-6 total reflects limited additional upset potential based on current candidate fields, endorsements, and fundraising patterns. Outcomes could shift higher if late scandals or well-funded challengers emerge in battleground districts, or lower only through unusually high incumbent survival rates in the final wave of votes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿No ganarán los titulares demócratas de la Cámara entre diez y doce elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
74%
Sí
¿No ganarán los titulares republicanos del Senado en exactamente tres elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
72%
Sí
¿Ganarían los senadores demócratas titulares todas sus elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
93%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes