Rhode Island's Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District, scheduled for September 9, 2026, features a contest between Stephen Skoly and Victor Mellor. Traders see a narrow edge for Skoly after state party delegates endorsed him at their convention by an informal 41-19 margin. The race stays close because both candidates emphasize overlapping priorities on border security, parental authority, and gun rights in a low-turnout primary within a heavily Democratic district. Mellor's profile as a self-described MAGA supporter contrasts with Skoly's background as a physician, while differences in fundraising and name recognition have yet to produce a decisive shift. Limited polling and voter engagement keep probabilities tight, with any late endorsements or campaign events likely to influence the final trader consensus ahead of the primary.