**Most Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 face limited or token opposition, producing high trader consensus around zero losses.** Thirteen Democratic seats are on the ballot, but primary calendars and candidate filings show few contested races against sitting senators. Incumbents such as Jon Ossoff (Georgia), Cory Booker (New Jersey), John Hickenlooper (Colorado), Ben Ray Luján (New Mexico), and Jeff Merkley (Oregon) appear on track for renomination with only minor challengers. Open-seat contests in Michigan and New Hampshire have drawn attention, yet these do not involve incumbent defeats. Progressive or outsider energy has surfaced in some House primaries and state-level races, but it has not produced credible threats to Senate incumbents at scale. With the general-election map already competitive for Democrats, party resources remain focused on November rather than internal contests. Absent late surges or unexpected withdrawals, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns in which Senate incumbents lose primaries infrequently.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos senadores demócratas no ganarán sus primarias?
¿Cuántos senadores demócratas no ganarán sus primarias?
0 79%
1 7.3%
2 3.4%
4 <1%
$14,008 Vol.
$14,008 Vol.
0
79%
1
13%
2
3%
3
<1%
4
1%
>4
7%
0 79%
1 7.3%
2 3.4%
4 <1%
$14,008 Vol.
$14,008 Vol.
0
$8,581 Vol.
79%
1
$1,887 Vol.
13%
2
$1,518 Vol.
3%
3
$697 Vol.
<1%
4
$724 Vol.
1%
>4
$602 Vol.
7%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Most Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 face limited or token opposition, producing high trader consensus around zero losses.**
Thirteen Democratic seats are on the ballot, but primary calendars and candidate filings show few contested races against sitting senators. Incumbents such as Jon Ossoff (Georgia), Cory Booker (New Jersey), John Hickenlooper (Colorado), Ben Ray Luján (New Mexico), and Jeff Merkley (Oregon) appear on track for renomination with only minor challengers. Open-seat contests in Michigan and New Hampshire have drawn attention, yet these do not involve incumbent defeats. Progressive or outsider energy has surfaced in some House primaries and state-level races, but it has not produced credible threats to Senate incumbents at scale. With the general-election map already competitive for Democrats, party resources remain focused on November rather than internal contests. Absent late surges or unexpected withdrawals, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns in which Senate incumbents lose primaries infrequently.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volumen
$14,008Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Most Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 face limited or token opposition, producing high trader consensus around zero losses.**
Thirteen Democratic seats are on the ballot, but primary calendars and candidate filings show few contested races against sitting senators. Incumbents such as Jon Ossoff (Georgia), Cory Booker (New Jersey), John Hickenlooper (Colorado), Ben Ray Luján (New Mexico), and Jeff Merkley (Oregon) appear on track for renomination with only minor challengers. Open-seat contests in Michigan and New Hampshire have drawn attention, yet these do not involve incumbent defeats. Progressive or outsider energy has surfaced in some House primaries and state-level races, but it has not produced credible threats to Senate incumbents at scale. With the general-election map already competitive for Democrats, party resources remain focused on November rather than internal contests. Absent late surges or unexpected withdrawals, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns in which Senate incumbents lose primaries infrequently.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$14,008Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Most Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 face limited or token opposition, producing high trader consensus around zero losses.** Thirteen Democratic seats are on the ballot, but primary calendars and candidate filings show few contested races against sitting senators. Incumbents such as Jon Ossoff (Georgia), Cory Booker (New Jersey), John Hickenlooper (Colorado), Ben Ray Luján (New Mexico), and Jeff Merkley (Oregon) appear on track for renomination with only minor challengers. Open-seat contests in Michigan and New Hampshire have drawn attention, yet these do not involve incumbent defeats. Progressive or outsider energy has surfaced in some House primaries and state-level races, but it has not produced credible threats to Senate incumbents at scale. With the general-election map already competitive for Democrats, party resources remain focused on November rather than internal contests. Absent late surges or unexpected withdrawals, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns in which Senate incumbents lose primaries infrequently.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿No ganarán los titulares republicanos del Senado en exactamente tres elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
82%
Sí
¿No ganarán los titulares demócratas de la Cámara entre diez y doce elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
50%
Sí
¿No ganarán los titulares republicanos de la Cámara entre cuatro y seis elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
93%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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