The April 2026 Massachusetts Republican Party convention positioned Michael Minogue as the clear frontrunner for the gubernatorial nomination by delivering him roughly 70 percent of delegate votes and the official party endorsement. This result has anchored trader consensus at 79.5 percent for Minogue ahead of the September 1 primary, underscoring his organizational strength among party activists. Brian Shortsleeve advanced narrowly to the ballot with 15.5 percent support and continues limited campaigning, reflected in his 9.7 percent market share. Mike Kennealy fell short of the threshold, suspended his effort, and registers just 0.4 percent. No subsequent statewide polling has emerged to shift these probabilities, leaving the contest defined by the convention outcome and the remaining primary window.