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Politics·Kamala

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

icon for Will the next elected US president be a woman?
Politics·Kamala

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

18% probabilidad
Polymarket

$11,755 Vol.

18% probabilidad
Polymarket

$11,755 Vol.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Current trader consensus on an 81.5% probability against a woman winning the 2028 presidential election reflects the early shape of both parties’ fields. Republican frontrunners JD Vance and Marco Rubio, along with other leading names such as Pete Hegseth, dominate early polling and betting markets, while Democratic speculation centers on Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg. Gretchen Whitmer explicitly ruled out a bid in May 2026, and Kamala Harris’s standing has declined after her 2024 loss. The limited number of prominent female contenders with national profiles or clear paths through primaries, combined with historical general-election results for women nominees, supports the current implied odds. No major candidate announcements or shifts have altered this positioning in recent weeks.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volumen
$11,755
Fecha de finalización
7 nov 2028
Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Current trader consensus on an 81.5% probability against a woman winning the 2028 presidential election reflects the early shape of both parties’ fields. Republican frontrunners JD Vance and Marco Rubio, along with other leading names such as Pete Hegseth, dominate early polling and betting markets, while Democratic speculation centers on Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg. Gretchen Whitmer explicitly ruled out a bid in May 2026, and Kamala Harris’s standing has declined after her 2024 loss. The limited number of prominent female contenders with national profiles or clear paths through primaries, combined with historical general-election results for women nominees, supports the current implied odds. No major candidate announcements or shifts have altered this positioning in recent weeks.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volumen
$11,755
Fecha de finalización
7 nov 2028
Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Will the next elected US president be a woman?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 18% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 18¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 18% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" ha generado $11.8K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 17, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Will the next elected US president be a woman?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" es 18% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 18% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.