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Política·Elecciones Francesas

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

icon for Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Política·Elecciones Francesas

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

NUEVO
30 abr 2027
Polymarket

$3,925 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen

$232 Vol.

16%

icon for Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella

$831 Vol.

71%

icon for Éric Zemmour

Éric Zemmour

$60 Vol.

5%

icon for Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe

$181 Vol.

45%

icon for David Lisnard

David Lisnard

$15 Vol.

5%

icon for Xavier Bertrand

Xavier Bertrand

$164 Vol.

4%

icon for Laurent Wauquiez

Laurent Wauquiez

$55 Vol.

3%

icon for François Ruffin

François Ruffin

$126 Vol.

3%

icon for Gabriel Attal

Gabriel Attal

$0 Vol.

16%

icon for Bruno Retailleau

Bruno Retailleau

$200 Vol.

8%

icon for François Hollande

François Hollande

$21 Vol.

6%

icon for Raphaël Glucksmann

Raphaël Glucksmann

$25 Vol.

14%

icon for Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$354 Vol.

45%

icon for Marine Tondelier

Marine Tondelier

$10 Vol.

4%

icon for Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$83 Vol.

2%

icon for Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin

$54 Vol.

7%

icon for Ségolène Royal

Ségolène Royal

$74 Vol.

4%

icon for François Asselineau

François Asselineau

$208 Vol.

4%

icon for Clémentine Autain

Clémentine Autain

$105 Vol.

1%

icon for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$0 Vol.

3%

icon for Michel Barnier

Michel Barnier

$57 Vol.

3%

icon for Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse

$57 Vol.

3%

icon for François Bayrou

François Bayrou

$12 Vol.

3%

icon for Élisabeth Borne

Élisabeth Borne

$50 Vol.

4%

icon for Yaël Braun-Pivet

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$85 Vol.

3%

icon for Jean Castex

Jean Castex

$152 Vol.

4%

icon for Gérald Darmanin

Gérald Darmanin

$50 Vol.

6%

icon for Carole Delga

Carole Delga

$71 Vol.

4%

icon for Bernard Cazeneuve

Bernard Cazeneuve

$56 Vol.

6%

icon for Manuel Bompard

Manuel Bompard

$50 Vol.

4%

icon for Mathilde Panot

Mathilde Panot

$50 Vol.

3%

icon for Other

Other

$92 Vol.

33%

icon for Sarah Knafo

Sarah Knafo

$38 Vol.

4%

icon for Juan Branco

Juan Branco

$121 Vol.

3%

icon for Clémence Guetté

Clémence Guetté

$81 Vol.

4%

icon for Sébastien Lecornu

Sébastien Lecornu

$6 Vol.

4%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally, leads first-round polling at around 30-35 percent and is widely viewed as the frontrunner to advance from the far-right camp in the April 2027 presidential vote. Marine Le Pen's March 2025 conviction for embezzlement of European Parliament funds and resulting five-year ineligibility (with her appeal ruling due July 7, 2026) has accelerated Bardella's positioning as the party's standard-bearer. On the other side, recent surveys show a fragmented contest for the second runoff spot, with center-right figures such as Édouard Philippe and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon trading positions in the low-to-mid teens amid low single-digit showings for other declared or potential contenders. Left-wing unity efforts remain unresolved, while Macron-era dissatisfaction and ongoing polarization continue to shape first-round dynamics ahead of further candidate declarations and any party primaries.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volumen
$3,925
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027
Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally, leads first-round polling at around 30-35 percent and is widely viewed as the frontrunner to advance from the far-right camp in the April 2027 presidential vote. Marine Le Pen's March 2025 conviction for embezzlement of European Parliament funds and resulting five-year ineligibility (with her appeal ruling due July 7, 2026) has accelerated Bardella's positioning as the party's standard-bearer. On the other side, recent surveys show a fragmented contest for the second runoff spot, with center-right figures such as Édouard Philippe and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon trading positions in the low-to-mid teens amid low single-digit showings for other declared or potential contenders. Left-wing unity efforts remain unresolved, while Macron-era dissatisfaction and ongoing polarization continue to shape first-round dynamics ahead of further candidate declarations and any party primaries.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volumen
$3,925
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027
Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 37 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Jordan Bardella" con 71%, seguido de "Édouard Philippe" con 45%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 71¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 71% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jun 1, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?", explora los 37 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" es "Jordan Bardella" con 71%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 71% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Édouard Philippe" con 45%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.