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icon for Alcatraz reopened in 2026?
Política·Prisión

Alcatraz reopened in 2026?

icon for Alcatraz reopened in 2026?
Política·Prisión

Alcatraz reopened in 2026?

3% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
3% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus around a 96.8% probability against Alcatraz reopening as a federal prison by the end of 2026 stems from persistent structural, legal, and logistical barriers. The island remains under National Park Service control with active $63.6 million structural and seismic restoration work scheduled through 2028, including closures of key cellhouse areas. President Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million in initial Federal Bureau of Prisons funding for fiscal year 2027 has not advanced to enacted appropriations or triggered any transfer of jurisdiction from the Department of the Interior. Local San Francisco officials have voiced uniform opposition, citing tourism impacts and the site's status as a National Historic Landmark, while full environmental reviews, infrastructure rebuilds, and congressional action would require far longer timelines than remain in 2026. Realistic shifts could occur only through unexpected emergency executive or legislative overrides before December, though no such measures have materialized amid competing priorities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,381
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus around a 96.8% probability against Alcatraz reopening as a federal prison by the end of 2026 stems from persistent structural, legal, and logistical barriers. The island remains under National Park Service control with active $63.6 million structural and seismic restoration work scheduled through 2028, including closures of key cellhouse areas. President Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million in initial Federal Bureau of Prisons funding for fiscal year 2027 has not advanced to enacted appropriations or triggered any transfer of jurisdiction from the Department of the Interior. Local San Francisco officials have voiced uniform opposition, citing tourism impacts and the site's status as a National Historic Landmark, while full environmental reviews, infrastructure rebuilds, and congressional action would require far longer timelines than remain in 2026. Realistic shifts could occur only through unexpected emergency executive or legislative overrides before December, though no such measures have materialized amid competing priorities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,381
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Alcatraz reopened in 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 3% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 3¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 3% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Alcatraz reopened in 2026?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 8, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Alcatraz reopened in 2026?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "Alcatraz reopened in 2026?" es 3% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 3% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "Alcatraz reopened in 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.