Incumbent Partido Popular (PP) leader Juanma Moreno commands trader consensus at near-certainty odds following a battery of May 4–11 polls from firms like Sigma Dos, SocioMétrica, and NC Report, all projecting PP vote shares of 42–45% and 54–58 seats in the 109-seat Andalusian Parliament—enough for the 55-seat absolute majority threshold. Stable leads persist after RTVE and Canal Sur leader debates, amid debates over health crises, infrastructure accidents, and security, with PSOE-A trailing at 21–25% (26–30 seats), Vox at 13–15% (13–17 seats), Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía under 8% each. This reflects PP's incumbency advantage since 2022. Realistic challenges include a surprise turnout surge favoring opposition, late-breaking scandal, or fragmented vote shifts, though polls show no momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones en Andalucía
Ganador de las elecciones en Andalucía
PP 99.4%
PSOE-A <1%
VOX <1%
PA <1%
$100,110 Vol.
$100,110 Vol.
17 may 2026
PP
99%
PSOE-A
<1%
VOX
<1%
PA
<1%
AA
<1%
PP 99.4%
PSOE-A <1%
VOX <1%
PA <1%
$100,110 Vol.
$100,110 Vol.
17 may 2026
PP
$29,389 Vol.
99%
PSOE-A
$35,985 Vol.
<1%
VOX
$25,191 Vol.
<1%
PA
$5,119 Vol.
<1%
AA
$4,426 Vol.
<1%
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Incumbent Partido Popular (PP) leader Juanma Moreno commands trader consensus at near-certainty odds following a battery of May 4–11 polls from firms like Sigma Dos, SocioMétrica, and NC Report, all projecting PP vote shares of 42–45% and 54–58 seats in the 109-seat Andalusian Parliament—enough for the 55-seat absolute majority threshold. Stable leads persist after RTVE and Canal Sur leader debates, amid debates over health crises, infrastructure accidents, and security, with PSOE-A trailing at 21–25% (26–30 seats), Vox at 13–15% (13–17 seats), Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía under 8% each. This reflects PP's incumbency advantage since 2022. Realistic challenges include a surprise turnout surge favoring opposition, late-breaking scandal, or fragmented vote shifts, though polls show no momentum.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volumen
$100,110Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Incumbent Partido Popular (PP) leader Juanma Moreno commands trader consensus at near-certainty odds following a battery of May 4–11 polls from firms like Sigma Dos, SocioMétrica, and NC Report, all projecting PP vote shares of 42–45% and 54–58 seats in the 109-seat Andalusian Parliament—enough for the 55-seat absolute majority threshold. Stable leads persist after RTVE and Canal Sur leader debates, amid debates over health crises, infrastructure accidents, and security, with PSOE-A trailing at 21–25% (26–30 seats), Vox at 13–15% (13–17 seats), Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía under 8% each. This reflects PP's incumbency advantage since 2022. Realistic challenges include a surprise turnout surge favoring opposition, late-breaking scandal, or fragmented vote shifts, though polls show no momentum.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Volumen
$100,110Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Partido Popular (PP) leader Juanma Moreno commands trader consensus at near-certainty odds following a battery of May 4–11 polls from firms like Sigma Dos, SocioMétrica, and NC Report, all projecting PP vote shares of 42–45% and 54–58 seats in the 109-seat Andalusian Parliament—enough for the 55-seat absolute majority threshold. Stable leads persist after RTVE and Canal Sur leader debates, amid debates over health crises, infrastructure accidents, and security, with PSOE-A trailing at 21–25% (26–30 seats), Vox at 13–15% (13–17 seats), Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía under 8% each. This reflects PP's incumbency advantage since 2022. Realistic challenges include a surprise turnout surge favoring opposition, late-breaking scandal, or fragmented vote shifts, though polls show no momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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