Consistent polling averages throughout the campaign have positioned the Partido Popular (PP) under regional president Juanma Moreno Bonilla to secure a clear majority in the Andalusian parliament. Recent surveys project the PP at 42–45 percent support, translating to 53–58 seats and comfortably exceeding the 55-seat threshold for an absolute majority. This dominance stems from sustained voter approval of the incumbent administration’s record on economic management and stability since 2019. The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party of Andalusia (PSOE-A), led by María Jesús Montero, trails significantly at 20–25 percent and faces internal challenges that have limited its recovery. While voter turnout on election day or unexpected late shifts in key provinces could theoretically narrow margins, current evidence from multiple pollsters indicates minimal realistic pathways for challengers to overtake the frontrunner.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones en Andalucía
Ganador de las elecciones en Andalucía
PP 99.9%
PSOE-A <1%
PA <1%
VOX <1%
$169,898 Vol.
$169,898 Vol.
17 may 2026
PP
100%
PSOE-A
<1%
VOX
<1%
PA
<1%
AA
<1%
PP 99.9%
PSOE-A <1%
PA <1%
VOX <1%
$169,898 Vol.
$169,898 Vol.
17 may 2026
PP
$60,460 Vol.
100%
PSOE-A
$63,033 Vol.
<1%
VOX
$36,234 Vol.
<1%
PA
$5,745 Vol.
<1%
AA
$4,426 Vol.
<1%
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Consistent polling averages throughout the campaign have positioned the Partido Popular (PP) under regional president Juanma Moreno Bonilla to secure a clear majority in the Andalusian parliament. Recent surveys project the PP at 42–45 percent support, translating to 53–58 seats and comfortably exceeding the 55-seat threshold for an absolute majority. This dominance stems from sustained voter approval of the incumbent administration’s record on economic management and stability since 2019. The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party of Andalusia (PSOE-A), led by María Jesús Montero, trails significantly at 20–25 percent and faces internal challenges that have limited its recovery. While voter turnout on election day or unexpected late shifts in key provinces could theoretically narrow margins, current evidence from multiple pollsters indicates minimal realistic pathways for challengers to overtake the frontrunner.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volumen
$169,898Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Consistent polling averages throughout the campaign have positioned the Partido Popular (PP) under regional president Juanma Moreno Bonilla to secure a clear majority in the Andalusian parliament. Recent surveys project the PP at 42–45 percent support, translating to 53–58 seats and comfortably exceeding the 55-seat threshold for an absolute majority. This dominance stems from sustained voter approval of the incumbent administration’s record on economic management and stability since 2019. The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party of Andalusia (PSOE-A), led by María Jesús Montero, trails significantly at 20–25 percent and faces internal challenges that have limited its recovery. While voter turnout on election day or unexpected late shifts in key provinces could theoretically narrow margins, current evidence from multiple pollsters indicates minimal realistic pathways for challengers to overtake the frontrunner.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Volumen
$169,898Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Consistent polling averages throughout the campaign have positioned the Partido Popular (PP) under regional president Juanma Moreno Bonilla to secure a clear majority in the Andalusian parliament. Recent surveys project the PP at 42–45 percent support, translating to 53–58 seats and comfortably exceeding the 55-seat threshold for an absolute majority. This dominance stems from sustained voter approval of the incumbent administration’s record on economic management and stability since 2019. The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party of Andalusia (PSOE-A), led by María Jesús Montero, trails significantly at 20–25 percent and faces internal challenges that have limited its recovery. While voter turnout on election day or unexpected late shifts in key provinces could theoretically narrow margins, current evidence from multiple pollsters indicates minimal realistic pathways for challengers to overtake the frontrunner.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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