Traders assign a dominant 79.8% implied probability to a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate increase at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s hawkish shift following the April 28 policy decision. That meeting produced a 6-3 vote to hold the policy rate at 0.75%, with three dissenters favoring an immediate hike amid upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts to 2.8%. Escalating energy prices from Middle East tensions and yen weakness near 157 against the dollar have reinforced expectations for normalization, while a Reuters poll of economists shows nearly two-thirds anticipating the move by end-June. Upcoming May inflation data and any further board communications remain key swing factors ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAumento de 25 puntos básicos 79.8%
Sin cambios 20%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 1.1%
Reducir tasas <1%
$115,192 Vol.
$115,192 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Reducir tasas
1%
Sin cambios
20%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
80%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 79.8%
Sin cambios 20%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 1.1%
Reducir tasas <1%
$115,192 Vol.
$115,192 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Reducir tasas
$34,145 Vol.
1%
Sin cambios
$29,089 Vol.
20%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$27,591 Vol.
80%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$24,367 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a dominant 79.8% implied probability to a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate increase at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s hawkish shift following the April 28 policy decision. That meeting produced a 6-3 vote to hold the policy rate at 0.75%, with three dissenters favoring an immediate hike amid upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts to 2.8%. Escalating energy prices from Middle East tensions and yen weakness near 157 against the dollar have reinforced expectations for normalization, while a Reuters poll of economists shows nearly two-thirds anticipating the move by end-June. Upcoming May inflation data and any further board communications remain key swing factors ahead of resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volumen
$115,192Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a dominant 79.8% implied probability to a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate increase at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s hawkish shift following the April 28 policy decision. That meeting produced a 6-3 vote to hold the policy rate at 0.75%, with three dissenters favoring an immediate hike amid upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts to 2.8%. Escalating energy prices from Middle East tensions and yen weakness near 157 against the dollar have reinforced expectations for normalization, while a Reuters poll of economists shows nearly two-thirds anticipating the move by end-June. Upcoming May inflation data and any further board communications remain key swing factors ahead of resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$115,192Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a dominant 79.8% implied probability to a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate increase at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s hawkish shift following the April 28 policy decision. That meeting produced a 6-3 vote to hold the policy rate at 0.75%, with three dissenters favoring an immediate hike amid upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts to 2.8%. Escalating energy prices from Middle East tensions and yen weakness near 157 against the dollar have reinforced expectations for normalization, while a Reuters poll of economists shows nearly two-thirds anticipating the move by end-June. Upcoming May inflation data and any further board communications remain key swing factors ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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