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Economía·Japón

¿Decisión del Banco de Japón en junio?

icon for ¿Decisión del Banco de Japón en junio?
Economía·Japón

¿Decisión del Banco de Japón en junio?

jun 16

jul 31

jun 16

jul 31

Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 79.8%

Sin cambios 20%

Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 1.1%

Reducir tasas <1%

Polymarket

$115,192 Vol.

Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 79.8%

Sin cambios 20%

Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 1.1%

Reducir tasas <1%

Polymarket

$115,192 Vol.

Reducir tasas

$34,145 Vol.

1%

Sin cambios

$29,089 Vol.

20%

Aumento de 25 puntos básicos

$27,591 Vol.

80%

Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos

$24,367 Vol.

1%

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75% with a 6-3 split, including three dissenters favoring an immediate hike, combined with an upward revision to its fiscal 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8% from 1.9%, has anchored trader expectations for a 25 basis point increase at the June 15-16 meeting. Elevated inflation risks stemming from Middle East energy shocks and yen weakness near 157 have reinforced the hawkish tilt, while the board’s forward guidance explicitly signaled further normalization. Recent Reuters polling shows 65% of economists now anticipate the move to 1.00% by end-June, aligning with market-implied odds that price in a high probability of this outcome. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release and any further yen intervention signals, which could refine the rate-path consensus ahead of resolution.

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.

If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$115,192
Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75% with a 6-3 split, including three dissenters favoring an immediate hike, combined with an upward revision to its fiscal 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8% from 1.9%, has anchored trader expectations for a 25 basis point increase at the June 15-16 meeting. Elevated inflation risks stemming from Middle East energy shocks and yen weakness near 157 have reinforced the hawkish tilt, while the board’s forward guidance explicitly signaled further normalization. Recent Reuters polling shows 65% of economists now anticipate the move to 1.00% by end-June, aligning with market-implied odds that price in a high probability of this outcome. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release and any further yen intervention signals, which could refine the rate-path consensus ahead of resolution.

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.

If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$115,192
Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Decisión del Banco de Japón en junio?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Aumento de 25 puntos básicos" con 80%, seguido de "Sin cambios" con 20%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 80¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 80% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Decisión del Banco de Japón en junio?" ha generado $115.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 19, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Decisión del Banco de Japón en junio?", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Decisión del Banco de Japón en junio?" es "Aumento de 25 puntos básicos" con 80%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 80% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Sin cambios" con 20%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Decisión del Banco de Japón en junio?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.