The Bank of Korea’s October 22 decision carries an 78.5% market-implied probability of no change following consecutive 25 basis point hikes in July and August that lifted the benchmark to 3.00%. Traders price this pause as the base case because policymakers have signaled they will monitor lagged effects on inflation, household debt, and Seoul housing prices before determining the next step, with the updated dot plot pointing to a gradual path toward a 3.25% terminal rate. Persistent core inflation above the 2% target, robust 3.3% GDP growth fueled by semiconductor exports, and a widened Korea-U.S. policy gap after the Fed’s recent tightening support the 19.5% odds of a 25 basis point October hike, though most analysts now favor November as the more likely timing.