California's Proposition 50 redistricting, approved by voters in 2025, fundamentally altered CA-01 by shifting boundaries to incorporate more Democratic-leaning North Bay communities while shedding Republican strongholds, producing a pronounced partisan tilt reflected in 2024 presidential vote simulations and subsequent nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. James Gallagher secured the June 2026 special election under prior lines to fill the vacancy left by Doug LaMalfa's death, but faces Mike McGuire in the November 2026 general on the new map. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 90 percent incorporates these structural changes alongside historical midterm patterns in newly configured districts. Even at these levels, late-cycle national shifts, unusually high Republican turnout in rural counties, or unforeseen candidate developments could still narrow the margin or alter the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$32,790 Vol.
$32,790 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
3%
$32,790 Vol.
$32,790 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$24,068 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$8,722 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's Proposition 50 redistricting, approved by voters in 2025, fundamentally altered CA-01 by shifting boundaries to incorporate more Democratic-leaning North Bay communities while shedding Republican strongholds, producing a pronounced partisan tilt reflected in 2024 presidential vote simulations and subsequent nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. James Gallagher secured the June 2026 special election under prior lines to fill the vacancy left by Doug LaMalfa's death, but faces Mike McGuire in the November 2026 general on the new map. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 90 percent incorporates these structural changes alongside historical midterm patterns in newly configured districts. Even at these levels, late-cycle national shifts, unusually high Republican turnout in rural counties, or unforeseen candidate developments could still narrow the margin or alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$32,790Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's Proposition 50 redistricting, approved by voters in 2025, fundamentally altered CA-01 by shifting boundaries to incorporate more Democratic-leaning North Bay communities while shedding Republican strongholds, producing a pronounced partisan tilt reflected in 2024 presidential vote simulations and subsequent nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. James Gallagher secured the June 2026 special election under prior lines to fill the vacancy left by Doug LaMalfa's death, but faces Mike McGuire in the November 2026 general on the new map. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 90 percent incorporates these structural changes alongside historical midterm patterns in newly configured districts. Even at these levels, late-cycle national shifts, unusually high Republican turnout in rural counties, or unforeseen candidate developments could still narrow the margin or alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$32,790Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's Proposition 50 redistricting, approved by voters in 2025, fundamentally altered CA-01 by shifting boundaries to incorporate more Democratic-leaning North Bay communities while shedding Republican strongholds, producing a pronounced partisan tilt reflected in 2024 presidential vote simulations and subsequent nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. James Gallagher secured the June 2026 special election under prior lines to fill the vacancy left by Doug LaMalfa's death, but faces Mike McGuire in the November 2026 general on the new map. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 90 percent incorporates these structural changes alongside historical midterm patterns in newly configured districts. Even at these levels, late-cycle national shifts, unusually high Republican turnout in rural counties, or unforeseen candidate developments could still narrow the margin or alter the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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