The district's pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent results for incumbent Representative Mike Thompson since 1999, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Thompson's moderate profile, fundraising edge, and endorsements from state party leaders position him to advance easily from the June 2 top-two primary alongside a Republican challenger. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 added rural counties yet left the seat with a D+8 lean and no competitive polling for Republicans. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, and the 91.5 percent market price for the Democratic Party captures this structural advantage. A late scandal, health event affecting Thompson, or unusually strong national Republican surge could alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar districts indicate low likelihood.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
92%
Partido Republicano
8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$625 Vol.
92%
Partido Republicano
$1,381 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent results for incumbent Representative Mike Thompson since 1999, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Thompson's moderate profile, fundraising edge, and endorsements from state party leaders position him to advance easily from the June 2 top-two primary alongside a Republican challenger. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 added rural counties yet left the seat with a D+8 lean and no competitive polling for Republicans. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, and the 91.5 percent market price for the Democratic Party captures this structural advantage. A late scandal, health event affecting Thompson, or unusually strong national Republican surge could alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar districts indicate low likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$2,006Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent results for incumbent Representative Mike Thompson since 1999, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Thompson's moderate profile, fundraising edge, and endorsements from state party leaders position him to advance easily from the June 2 top-two primary alongside a Republican challenger. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 added rural counties yet left the seat with a D+8 lean and no competitive polling for Republicans. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, and the 91.5 percent market price for the Democratic Party captures this structural advantage. A late scandal, health event affecting Thompson, or unusually strong national Republican surge could alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar districts indicate low likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$2,006Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent results for incumbent Representative Mike Thompson since 1999, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Thompson's moderate profile, fundraising edge, and endorsements from state party leaders position him to advance easily from the June 2 top-two primary alongside a Republican challenger. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 added rural counties yet left the seat with a D+8 lean and no competitive polling for Republicans. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, and the 91.5 percent market price for the Democratic Party captures this structural advantage. A late scandal, health event affecting Thompson, or unusually strong national Republican surge could alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar districts indicate low likelihood.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes