California's 4th congressional district features a top-two primary system that produced an all-Democratic November matchup after the June 2026 primary, with incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advancing. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, has driven trader consensus toward the Democratic Party. Redistricting incorporated additional territory but preserved the overall partisan balance favoring Democrats. Thompson's long incumbency and established fundraising further reinforce the position. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal of the primary outcome or district composition, neither of which appears plausible under current conditions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$13,032 Vol.
$13,032 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
96%
Partido Republicano
2%
$13,032 Vol.
$13,032 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$5,915 Vol.
96%
Partido Republicano
$7,117 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district features a top-two primary system that produced an all-Democratic November matchup after the June 2026 primary, with incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advancing. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, has driven trader consensus toward the Democratic Party. Redistricting incorporated additional territory but preserved the overall partisan balance favoring Democrats. Thompson's long incumbency and established fundraising further reinforce the position. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal of the primary outcome or district composition, neither of which appears plausible under current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$13,032Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district features a top-two primary system that produced an all-Democratic November matchup after the June 2026 primary, with incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advancing. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, has driven trader consensus toward the Democratic Party. Redistricting incorporated additional territory but preserved the overall partisan balance favoring Democrats. Thompson's long incumbency and established fundraising further reinforce the position. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal of the primary outcome or district composition, neither of which appears plausible under current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$13,032Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 4th congressional district features a top-two primary system that produced an all-Democratic November matchup after the June 2026 primary, with incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advancing. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, has driven trader consensus toward the Democratic Party. Redistricting incorporated additional territory but preserved the overall partisan balance favoring Democrats. Thompson's long incumbency and established fundraising further reinforce the position. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal of the primary outcome or district composition, neither of which appears plausible under current conditions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes