Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Houston Brignano in California’s 36th congressional district, a Los Angeles County seat with a D+21 Partisan Voter Index. Lieu captured roughly 61 percent in the primary, reflecting the district’s strong Democratic registration edge and consistent performance in prior cycles. Forecasters rate the general election solid or safe Democratic, consistent with trader pricing that assigns high implied probability to a Democratic victory while spreading volume across margin brackets. Limited Republican fundraising, absence of recent competitive polling, and lack of major campaign events since the primary have kept the race stable. Factors that could shift the exact margin include national political conditions, turnout patterns among independent and Hispanic voters, or late developments affecting candidate visibility before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-36 Margen de victoria en las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-36 Margen de victoria en las elecciones de la Cámara
Demócrata 40-45% 43%
Demócrata 45-50% 42%
Demócrata 0-15% 40%
Demócrata 55% o más 39%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata 55% o más
39%
Demócrata 50-55%
39%
Demócrata 45-50%
42%
Demócrata 40-45%
43%
Demócrata 35-40%
39%
Demócrata 30-35%
39%
Demócrata 25-30%
39%
Demócrata 15-25%
39%
Demócrata 0-15%
40%
Gana el republicano
39%
Demócrata 40-45% 43%
Demócrata 45-50% 42%
Demócrata 0-15% 40%
Demócrata 55% o más 39%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata 55% o más
$0 Vol.
39%
Demócrata 50-55%
$0 Vol.
39%
Demócrata 45-50%
$0 Vol.
42%
Demócrata 40-45%
$0 Vol.
43%
Demócrata 35-40%
$0 Vol.
39%
Demócrata 30-35%
$0 Vol.
39%
Demócrata 25-30%
$0 Vol.
39%
Demócrata 15-25%
$0 Vol.
39%
Demócrata 0-15%
$0 Vol.
40%
Gana el republicano
$0 Vol.
39%
The 2026 CA-36 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-36 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Houston Brignano in California’s 36th congressional district, a Los Angeles County seat with a D+21 Partisan Voter Index. Lieu captured roughly 61 percent in the primary, reflecting the district’s strong Democratic registration edge and consistent performance in prior cycles. Forecasters rate the general election solid or safe Democratic, consistent with trader pricing that assigns high implied probability to a Democratic victory while spreading volume across margin brackets. Limited Republican fundraising, absence of recent competitive polling, and lack of major campaign events since the primary have kept the race stable. Factors that could shift the exact margin include national political conditions, turnout patterns among independent and Hispanic voters, or late developments affecting candidate visibility before November 3.
The 2026 CA-36 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-36 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-36 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-36 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-36 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Houston Brignano in California’s 36th congressional district, a Los Angeles County seat with a D+21 Partisan Voter Index. Lieu captured roughly 61 percent in the primary, reflecting the district’s strong Democratic registration edge and consistent performance in prior cycles. Forecasters rate the general election solid or safe Democratic, consistent with trader pricing that assigns high implied probability to a Democratic victory while spreading volume across margin brackets. Limited Republican fundraising, absence of recent competitive polling, and lack of major campaign events since the primary have kept the race stable. Factors that could shift the exact margin include national political conditions, turnout patterns among independent and Hispanic voters, or late developments affecting candidate visibility before November 3.
The 2026 CA-36 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-36 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-36 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Houston Brignano in California’s 36th congressional district, a Los Angeles County seat with a D+21 Partisan Voter Index. Lieu captured roughly 61 percent in the primary, reflecting the district’s strong Democratic registration edge and consistent performance in prior cycles. Forecasters rate the general election solid or safe Democratic, consistent with trader pricing that assigns high implied probability to a Democratic victory while spreading volume across margin brackets. Limited Republican fundraising, absence of recent competitive polling, and lack of major campaign events since the primary have kept the race stable. Factors that could shift the exact margin include national political conditions, turnout patterns among independent and Hispanic voters, or late developments affecting candidate visibility before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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