Incumbent Democrat Robert Garcia and Republican Brian Burley advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 42nd House seat on November 3. The district's mix of Democratic-leaning areas in Los Angeles County and more competitive coastal Orange County communities, including Huntington Beach, shapes the current trader pricing across narrow and moderate Democratic victory margins. Garcia's primary performance, fundraising lead, and the seat's historical Democratic tilt support the implied probability of a Democratic hold, while Republican registration shares and the redrawn boundaries keep smaller margins in play. No major late-cycle developments have shifted positioning since the primary, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and any final campaign events in the remaining weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-42 Margen de victoria en las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-42 Margen de victoria en las elecciones de la Cámara
Demócrata 20-25% 38%
Demócrata 5-10% 38%
Demócrata 0-5% 38%
Demócrata 30%+ 36%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata 30%+
36%
Demócrata 25-30%
36%
Demócrata 20-25%
38%
Demócrata 15-20%
36%
Demócrata 10-15%
36%
Demócrata 5-10%
38%
Demócrata 0-5%
38%
Gana un republicano
12%
Demócrata 20-25% 38%
Demócrata 5-10% 38%
Demócrata 0-5% 38%
Demócrata 30%+ 36%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata 30%+
$0 Vol.
36%
Demócrata 25-30%
$0 Vol.
36%
Demócrata 20-25%
$0 Vol.
38%
Demócrata 15-20%
$0 Vol.
36%
Demócrata 10-15%
$0 Vol.
36%
Demócrata 5-10%
$0 Vol.
38%
Demócrata 0-5%
$0 Vol.
38%
Gana un republicano
$0 Vol.
12%
The 2026 CA-42 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-42 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Robert Garcia and Republican Brian Burley advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 42nd House seat on November 3. The district's mix of Democratic-leaning areas in Los Angeles County and more competitive coastal Orange County communities, including Huntington Beach, shapes the current trader pricing across narrow and moderate Democratic victory margins. Garcia's primary performance, fundraising lead, and the seat's historical Democratic tilt support the implied probability of a Democratic hold, while Republican registration shares and the redrawn boundaries keep smaller margins in play. No major late-cycle developments have shifted positioning since the primary, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and any final campaign events in the remaining weeks.
The 2026 CA-42 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-42 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-42 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-42 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-42 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Robert Garcia and Republican Brian Burley advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 42nd House seat on November 3. The district's mix of Democratic-leaning areas in Los Angeles County and more competitive coastal Orange County communities, including Huntington Beach, shapes the current trader pricing across narrow and moderate Democratic victory margins. Garcia's primary performance, fundraising lead, and the seat's historical Democratic tilt support the implied probability of a Democratic hold, while Republican registration shares and the redrawn boundaries keep smaller margins in play. No major late-cycle developments have shifted positioning since the primary, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and any final campaign events in the remaining weeks.
The 2026 CA-42 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-42 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-42 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Robert Garcia and Republican Brian Burley advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 42nd House seat on November 3. The district's mix of Democratic-leaning areas in Los Angeles County and more competitive coastal Orange County communities, including Huntington Beach, shapes the current trader pricing across narrow and moderate Democratic victory margins. Garcia's primary performance, fundraising lead, and the seat's historical Democratic tilt support the implied probability of a Democratic hold, while Republican registration shares and the redrawn boundaries keep smaller margins in play. No major late-cycle developments have shifted positioning since the primary, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and any final campaign events in the remaining weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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