In California's 43rd congressional district, longtime Democratic incumbent Maxine Waters faces Republican challenger Cristian Morales in the November 3 general election after both advanced from the June top-two primary. The seat's D+27 partisan voter index and history of Democratic margins exceeding 70 percent underpin trader pricing across margin buckets, yet the tight clustering around 40-50 percent probabilities for several Democrat win ranges and Republican outcomes reflects limited recent campaign activity, stable voter registration advantages, and the absence of major national shifts or candidate-specific events that would alter turnout or swing voter behavior. Upcoming factors such as fall advertising, any late national polling movements, or unexpected turnout shifts among key blocs in South Los Angeles and the South Bay could widen separation before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-43 Margen de victoria en las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-43 Margen de victoria en las elecciones de la Cámara
Demócrata 35-40% 42%
Demócrata 45-50% 42%
Demócrata 65%+ 42%
Demócrata 55-60% 42%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata 65%+
42%
Demócrata 60-65%
42%
Demócrata 55-60%
42%
Demócrata 50-55%
42%
Demócrata 45-50%
42%
Demócrata 40-45%
42%
Demócrata 35-40%
42%
Demócrata 25-35%
42%
Demócrata 0-25%
42%
Victoria republicana
42%
Demócrata 35-40% 42%
Demócrata 45-50% 42%
Demócrata 65%+ 42%
Demócrata 55-60% 42%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata 65%+
$0 Vol.
42%
Demócrata 60-65%
$0 Vol.
42%
Demócrata 55-60%
$0 Vol.
42%
Demócrata 50-55%
$0 Vol.
42%
Demócrata 45-50%
$0 Vol.
42%
Demócrata 40-45%
$0 Vol.
42%
Demócrata 35-40%
$0 Vol.
42%
Demócrata 25-35%
$0 Vol.
42%
Demócrata 0-25%
$0 Vol.
42%
Victoria republicana
$0 Vol.
42%
The 2026 CA-43 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-43 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In California's 43rd congressional district, longtime Democratic incumbent Maxine Waters faces Republican challenger Cristian Morales in the November 3 general election after both advanced from the June top-two primary. The seat's D+27 partisan voter index and history of Democratic margins exceeding 70 percent underpin trader pricing across margin buckets, yet the tight clustering around 40-50 percent probabilities for several Democrat win ranges and Republican outcomes reflects limited recent campaign activity, stable voter registration advantages, and the absence of major national shifts or candidate-specific events that would alter turnout or swing voter behavior. Upcoming factors such as fall advertising, any late national polling movements, or unexpected turnout shifts among key blocs in South Los Angeles and the South Bay could widen separation before Election Day.
The 2026 CA-43 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-43 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-43 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-43 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-43 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In California's 43rd congressional district, longtime Democratic incumbent Maxine Waters faces Republican challenger Cristian Morales in the November 3 general election after both advanced from the June top-two primary. The seat's D+27 partisan voter index and history of Democratic margins exceeding 70 percent underpin trader pricing across margin buckets, yet the tight clustering around 40-50 percent probabilities for several Democrat win ranges and Republican outcomes reflects limited recent campaign activity, stable voter registration advantages, and the absence of major national shifts or candidate-specific events that would alter turnout or swing voter behavior. Upcoming factors such as fall advertising, any late national polling movements, or unexpected turnout shifts among key blocs in South Los Angeles and the South Bay could widen separation before Election Day.
The 2026 CA-43 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-43 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-43 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In California's 43rd congressional district, longtime Democratic incumbent Maxine Waters faces Republican challenger Cristian Morales in the November 3 general election after both advanced from the June top-two primary. The seat's D+27 partisan voter index and history of Democratic margins exceeding 70 percent underpin trader pricing across margin buckets, yet the tight clustering around 40-50 percent probabilities for several Democrat win ranges and Republican outcomes reflects limited recent campaign activity, stable voter registration advantages, and the absence of major national shifts or candidate-specific events that would alter turnout or swing voter behavior. Upcoming factors such as fall advertising, any late national polling movements, or unexpected turnout shifts among key blocs in South Los Angeles and the South Bay could widen separation before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Ganará un candidato del Partido Demócrata la elección de la Cámara de Representantes por el distrito CA-42 en 2026 por un margen del 20%-25%?
44%
Sí
¿Ganará un candidato del Partido Demócrata la elección de la Cámara de Representantes de CA-44 en 2026 por 55% o más?
40%
Sí
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Sí
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