Recent September Core PCE data at 3.1% year-over-year, up from 3.0% prior, alongside firm Q3 GDP growth of 3.4%, anchors trader expectations for October around 3.1–3.2% as services and shelter components remain sticky. Market-implied odds cluster tightly at these levels because incoming CPI prints, Cleveland Fed nowcasts near 3.2%, and persistent supercore pressures offset hopes for faster disinflation, while softening real consumption and energy price moderation introduce downside risk. The Federal Reserve’s September projections and recent hold on policy rates reinforce this range, with the November 10 CPI release and November 25 PCE report serving as key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance between 3.1% and 3.2% outcomes.