Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean leads trader consensus at 80% implied probability for Florida's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others, and Bean's 57% victory in 2024. Recent Q1 2026 FEC filings, released in April, show Bean with $1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand, far outpacing leading Democratic contender Michael Kirwan's $511,000 raised and $226,000 cash amid a crowded four-way Democratic primary featuring LaShonda Holloway, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson. No public polls exist, but the fragmented Democratic field and strong GOP incumbency advantage sustain high Republican odds ahead of the August 18 primaries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFL-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
FL-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$11,781 Vol.
$11,781 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
57%
Partido Demócrata
20%
$11,781 Vol.
$11,781 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$6,745 Vol.
57%
Partido Demócrata
$5,036 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean leads trader consensus at 80% implied probability for Florida's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others, and Bean's 57% victory in 2024. Recent Q1 2026 FEC filings, released in April, show Bean with $1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand, far outpacing leading Democratic contender Michael Kirwan's $511,000 raised and $226,000 cash amid a crowded four-way Democratic primary featuring LaShonda Holloway, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson. No public polls exist, but the fragmented Democratic field and strong GOP incumbency advantage sustain high Republican odds ahead of the August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volumen
$11,781Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean leads trader consensus at 80% implied probability for Florida's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others, and Bean's 57% victory in 2024. Recent Q1 2026 FEC filings, released in April, show Bean with $1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand, far outpacing leading Democratic contender Michael Kirwan's $511,000 raised and $226,000 cash amid a crowded four-way Democratic primary featuring LaShonda Holloway, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson. No public polls exist, but the fragmented Democratic field and strong GOP incumbency advantage sustain high Republican odds ahead of the August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$11,781Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean leads trader consensus at 80% implied probability for Florida's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others, and Bean's 57% victory in 2024. Recent Q1 2026 FEC filings, released in April, show Bean with $1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand, far outpacing leading Democratic contender Michael Kirwan's $511,000 raised and $226,000 cash amid a crowded four-way Democratic primary featuring LaShonda Holloway, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson. No public polls exist, but the fragmented Democratic field and strong GOP incumbency advantage sustain high Republican odds ahead of the August 18 primaries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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