Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination in the August primary with strong backing from President Trump and Governor DeSantis, while David Jolly emerged as the Democratic nominee after a competitive primary. Recent polling averages place the general election contest within a few points, including a September St. Pete Polls survey showing Donalds at 44% and Jolly at 43% among likely voters. Key dynamics include Donalds' substantial fundraising edge offset by Jolly's crossover support among independents and some Republican voters, plus Florida's partisan balance in an open-seat race. The absence of scheduled debates and ongoing ad spending by both sides have kept the margin narrow, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns and late-cycle shifts in a state where small changes in swing voter preferences can determine the final spread.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoDonalds 3-6% 34%
Donalds 6-9% 28%
Donalds 0-3% 15%
Jolly 6%+ 11.8%
$10,407 Vol.
$10,407 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Donalds 18%+
6%
Donalds 15-18%
<1%
Donalds 12-15%
1%
Donalds 9-12%
8%
Donalds 6-9%
28%
Donalds 3-6%
34%
Donalds 0-3%
15%
Jolly 0-3%
6%
Jolly 3-6%
8%
Jolly 6%+
12%
Donalds 3-6% 34%
Donalds 6-9% 28%
Donalds 0-3% 15%
Jolly 6%+ 11.8%
$10,407 Vol.
$10,407 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Donalds 18%+
$405 Vol.
6%
Donalds 15-18%
$454 Vol.
<1%
Donalds 12-15%
$399 Vol.
1%
Donalds 9-12%
$653 Vol.
8%
Donalds 6-9%
$3,036 Vol.
28%
Donalds 3-6%
$4,046 Vol.
34%
Donalds 0-3%
$317 Vol.
15%
Jolly 0-3%
$366 Vol.
6%
Jolly 3-6%
$359 Vol.
8%
Jolly 6%+
$373 Vol.
12%
The 2026 Florida gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination in the August primary with strong backing from President Trump and Governor DeSantis, while David Jolly emerged as the Democratic nominee after a competitive primary. Recent polling averages place the general election contest within a few points, including a September St. Pete Polls survey showing Donalds at 44% and Jolly at 43% among likely voters. Key dynamics include Donalds' substantial fundraising edge offset by Jolly's crossover support among independents and some Republican voters, plus Florida's partisan balance in an open-seat race. The absence of scheduled debates and ongoing ad spending by both sides have kept the margin narrow, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns and late-cycle shifts in a state where small changes in swing voter preferences can determine the final spread.
The 2026 Florida gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 5, 2026, 2:39 PM ET
Volumen
$10,407Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 5, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Florida gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination in the August primary with strong backing from President Trump and Governor DeSantis, while David Jolly emerged as the Democratic nominee after a competitive primary. Recent polling averages place the general election contest within a few points, including a September St. Pete Polls survey showing Donalds at 44% and Jolly at 43% among likely voters. Key dynamics include Donalds' substantial fundraising edge offset by Jolly's crossover support among independents and some Republican voters, plus Florida's partisan balance in an open-seat race. The absence of scheduled debates and ongoing ad spending by both sides have kept the margin narrow, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns and late-cycle shifts in a state where small changes in swing voter preferences can determine the final spread.
The 2026 Florida gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$10,407Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 5, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination in the August primary with strong backing from President Trump and Governor DeSantis, while David Jolly emerged as the Democratic nominee after a competitive primary. Recent polling averages place the general election contest within a few points, including a September St. Pete Polls survey showing Donalds at 44% and Jolly at 43% among likely voters. Key dynamics include Donalds' substantial fundraising edge offset by Jolly's crossover support among independents and some Republican voters, plus Florida's partisan balance in an open-seat race. The absence of scheduled debates and ongoing ad spending by both sides have kept the margin narrow, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns and late-cycle shifts in a state where small changes in swing voter preferences can determine the final spread.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Ganará el candidato del Partido Republicano la elección al Senado de Florida de 2026 por entre un 6% y un 9%?
18%
Sí
¿Ganará el candidato del Partido Demócrata la elección para gobernador de Connecticut en 2026 por un margen del 5%-10%?
18%
Sí
¿Ganará el candidato del Partido Demócrata la elección para gobernador de Arizona en 2026 por un margen del 15%-18%?
17%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes