The Democratic primary in Hawaii’s 1st District concluded on August 8, leaving the nominee’s identity and positioning as the central driver of November margin probabilities. Incumbent Ed Case, a moderate with a record of cross-aisle votes, faced a serious challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, backed by progressive groups emphasizing cost-of-living and party-line issues; late polling and fundraising parity kept the primary outcome in doubt and sustained even odds between the top contenders. The district’s strong Democratic lean (PVI D+13 or greater) and 2024 general-election margin above 40 points anchor expectations of a sizable win for whichever Democrat advances, yet the spread of margin buckets at comparable prices reflects trader caution over turnout patterns, Republican nominee strength, and any post-primary consolidation effects. A decisive primary result or major endorsement shift could quickly separate the buckets, while limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s base-rate performance continue to compress upside for a GOP victory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoDemocrat 55%+ 37%
Demócrata 35-40% 37%
Demócrata 25-30% 37%
Demócrata 15-25% 37%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Democrat 55%+
37%
Democrat 50-55%
37%
Demócrata 45-50%
37%
Demócrata 40-45%
37%
Demócrata 35-40%
37%
Demócrata 30-35%
37%
Demócrata 25-30%
37%
Demócrata 15-25%
37%
Demócrata 0-15%
37%
Victoria republicana
37%
Democrat 55%+ 37%
Demócrata 35-40% 37%
Demócrata 25-30% 37%
Demócrata 15-25% 37%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Democrat 55%+
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 Vol.
37%
Demócrata 45-50%
$0 Vol.
37%
Demócrata 40-45%
$0 Vol.
37%
Demócrata 35-40%
$0 Vol.
37%
Demócrata 30-35%
$0 Vol.
37%
Demócrata 25-30%
$0 Vol.
37%
Demócrata 15-25%
$0 Vol.
37%
Demócrata 0-15%
$0 Vol.
37%
Victoria republicana
$0 Vol.
37%
The 2026 HI-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Democratic primary in Hawaii’s 1st District concluded on August 8, leaving the nominee’s identity and positioning as the central driver of November margin probabilities. Incumbent Ed Case, a moderate with a record of cross-aisle votes, faced a serious challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, backed by progressive groups emphasizing cost-of-living and party-line issues; late polling and fundraising parity kept the primary outcome in doubt and sustained even odds between the top contenders. The district’s strong Democratic lean (PVI D+13 or greater) and 2024 general-election margin above 40 points anchor expectations of a sizable win for whichever Democrat advances, yet the spread of margin buckets at comparable prices reflects trader caution over turnout patterns, Republican nominee strength, and any post-primary consolidation effects. A decisive primary result or major endorsement shift could quickly separate the buckets, while limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s base-rate performance continue to compress upside for a GOP victory.
The 2026 HI-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 HI-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Democratic primary in Hawaii’s 1st District concluded on August 8, leaving the nominee’s identity and positioning as the central driver of November margin probabilities. Incumbent Ed Case, a moderate with a record of cross-aisle votes, faced a serious challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, backed by progressive groups emphasizing cost-of-living and party-line issues; late polling and fundraising parity kept the primary outcome in doubt and sustained even odds between the top contenders. The district’s strong Democratic lean (PVI D+13 or greater) and 2024 general-election margin above 40 points anchor expectations of a sizable win for whichever Democrat advances, yet the spread of margin buckets at comparable prices reflects trader caution over turnout patterns, Republican nominee strength, and any post-primary consolidation effects. A decisive primary result or major endorsement shift could quickly separate the buckets, while limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s base-rate performance continue to compress upside for a GOP victory.
The 2026 HI-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Democratic primary in Hawaii’s 1st District concluded on August 8, leaving the nominee’s identity and positioning as the central driver of November margin probabilities. Incumbent Ed Case, a moderate with a record of cross-aisle votes, faced a serious challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, backed by progressive groups emphasizing cost-of-living and party-line issues; late polling and fundraising parity kept the primary outcome in doubt and sustained even odds between the top contenders. The district’s strong Democratic lean (PVI D+13 or greater) and 2024 general-election margin above 40 points anchor expectations of a sizable win for whichever Democrat advances, yet the spread of margin buckets at comparable prices reflects trader caution over turnout patterns, Republican nominee strength, and any post-primary consolidation effects. A decisive primary result or major endorsement shift could quickly separate the buckets, while limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s base-rate performance continue to compress upside for a GOP victory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes